中国未来人口老龄化水平变化趋势对经济增长的影响——以“全面两孩”政策为背景  

Impact on Economic Growth of China's Future Population Aging Level Change Trend

作　　者：隋澈[1] Sui Che(School of Economics,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《河北经贸大学学报》2018年第3期39-46,共8页Journal of Hebei University of Economics and Business

基　　金：国家卫生健康委员会(原国家人口计生委)项目"经济持续增长的人力资源保障研究"(2011015)

摘　　要：利用队列要素法预测2016年实施"全面两孩"政策后未来75年的人口老龄化水平变化趋势,发现"全面两孩"政策有助于降低未来人口老龄化水平,但是难以改变未来人口老龄化水平不断提高的趋势。人口老龄化水平提高会导致储蓄率降低、减少财政收入和生产性财政支出,并且不利于技术创新,中国今后的经济增长速度可能因此放缓。因此应加大教育人力资本投资力度,提高劳动者的工作能力,发展老龄产业,建设和完善社会养老服务体系,通过户籍改革实现农民工市民化巩固并提高城镇化水平,能够减轻人口老龄化水平,从而减少其对经济增长造成的负面影响。The queue element method is used to forecast an ageing population level change trend of 75 years in future after the implementation of"comprehensive two children"policy in 2016.The"comprehensive two children"policy help to slow down the level of future population aging level,but hard to change the continuously improve trend of population aging level in the future.Ageing population level can reduce saving rate and reduce the income and productive fiscal spending,and not conducive to technological innovation,China's future economic growth might slow.So to increase the education investment in human capital,improve the working ability of the workers,develop old-age industry,constructing and improve the social endowment service system,realize citizenization of migrant workers by the household registration reform,consolidate and improve the urbanization level,can relieve the ageing levels,thus to reduce negative impact on economic growth from the increase.

关 键 词：“全面两孩”政策 人口老龄化 经济增长 老年抚养化 户籍改革 城镇化 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]