地方政府债务、土地财政与房地产价格的关系——基于省际面板数据的分析  

The Analysis on Chinese Local Governmental Debts,Land Finance and Real Estate Price——based on interprovincial panel data

作　　者：葛堃[1] 卢新海[1,2] Ge Kun;Lu Xinhai

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]华中师范大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《中国房地产》2017年第30期11-20,共10页China Real Estate

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"基于国内外粮食市场联动效应的海外耕地资源利用方式及其对中国粮食安全的影响研究"(批准号:41371522)

摘　　要：基于2004-2014年中国31个省市自治区面板数据,在统计意义上分别探讨了地方政府债务与土地财政之间的关系,土地财政对房地产价格的影响,得出了地方政府债务催生土地财政,土地财政推动房价上涨的结论,并在此基础上研究了地方政府债务对房地产价格的影响。结果显示:在限定居民收入水平和城镇化水平的条件下,地方政府债务依然能显著推动房价上涨,且对房价上涨的影响存在明显的区域差异,其中东部地区地方政府债务对房价上涨的推动作用最大,中部地区次之,西部地区最小。基于上述结论,提出了相应的对策建议。Based on panel data(2004-2014)from 31 Chinese administrative regions(22 provinces,5 autonomous regions and 4 direct-controlled municipalities),the relation between local governmental debts and land finance,and the impact of land finance on real estate price have been statistically probed and studied in this thesis.Moreover,two conclusions have been drawn,on one hand,the local governmental debts generate land finance,on the other hand the land finance drives house price to sky-high level.Furthermore,the local governmental debts’influence on real estate prices has been deeply researched.Results suggest that under the condition of limiting residents’income level and urbanization level,the local governmental debts will significantly promote the rise of house prices,additionally this kind of influence is geographically different.To be specific,this promotive influence is most remarkable in eastern areas and then central areas take the second place and at last is western areas.At last but not the least,based on the conclusions above,according countermeasures and suggestions have been put forward.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 土地财政 房地产价格 区域差异 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F812.5