县域土地利用变化研究  

Study on Changes in Land Use at the County Level

作　　者：胡碧霞[1] 郭元武[2] 郑向莞 Hu Bixia;Guo Yuanwu;Zheng Xiangwan

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中南民族大学公共管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [3]吉林建筑大学,吉林长春130000

出　　处：《中国房地产》2017年第27期16-22,共7页China Real Estate

摘　　要：从县域土地利用视角出发,运用数理统计方法和灰色预测模型GM(1,1)对常宁市2005-2016年土地利用变化水平及结构变化、动态度变化、变化强度等方面进行分析,并预测了2021年常宁市土地利用变化情况,从而达到把握土地利用变化规律的目的。结果表明:(1)城市建设用地的增加、生态类型用地的减少是常宁市11年间土地利用变化的总体特征。其中,城镇村及工矿用地呈上升趋势,林地呈下降趋势。(2)利用Matlab强大的矩阵功能,实现灰色GM(1,1)模型算法,从模拟结果来看,精确度较高,预测结果与实际土地利用情况有较好的一致性,可为常宁市土地利用规划提供科学依据。(3)切实保护耕地,优化城市建设用地结构,协调土地利用与生态建设是今后常宁市土地利用规划的一个重要方向。From the perspective of the county-level land use,this paper uses the mathematical statistics method and GM(1,1)for analysis at the following aspects including the level of changes in land use,changes in structure and variability,and the intensity of such changes from 2005 to 2016.It is also intended to predict land use changes in Changning city in 2021,so as to grasp the pattern and rule of such changes.The result shows that:①The increase of urban construction land and the reduction of ecological land are the general characteristics of land use change in Changning city during the past eleven years among which the land for urban,industrial and mining uses shows a rising trend,and the land of forest shows a downward trend.②With the application of the powerful matrix function of Matlab,the GM(1,1)model algorithm is adopted from the results of which it can be concluded that the results predicted by the GM(1,1)in the near future are credible and high consistency is found between the projected and actual land-use situations so that it could provide scientific basis for land use planning of Changning.③It is an important goal of land use planning in Changning city to protect the cultivated land,optimize the structure of urban construction land and coordinate land use and ecological construction.

关 键 词：土地利用变化 动态分析 灰色模型 常宁市 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]