WRF模式对昆明降水量预报的模拟检验  

WRF MODEL SIMULATION TEST OF THE KUNMING PRECIPITATION FORECAST

作　　者：邹阳 孙俊奎 王将 ZOU Yang;SUN Jun-kui;WANG Jiang(The Meteorological Bureau of Kunming,Kunming 650000,Yunnan,China)

机构地区：[1]昆明市气象局,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《云南地理环境研究》2018年第1期57-64,共8页Yunnan Geographic Environment Research

基　　金：云南省气象局预报员技术开发专项项目"针对云南典型天气系统的WRF业务产品检验(以昆明为例)"(YB201405)资助

摘　　要：检验分析2013年到2016年WRF模式对昆明降水量预报的TS评分时空分布特征。采用中尺度WRF模式系统模拟昆明典型大尺度天气系统的近两年雨季降水天气,进行模式预报性能的评估研究,并对比分析WRF模式预报与日常业务主观预报。结果表明:降水TS评分空间分布除了小雨外都不均匀,中雨TS评分是南部和西部地区较优,大雨TS评分是西南部和东部地区较优,暴雨TS评分是东南部和西北部地区较优。WRF模式小雨和暴雨TS评分低于主观预报;WRF模式和主观预报在切变线和孟湾风暴系统下预报性能较好;WRF模式在静止锋、南支槽、西南涡和西行台风过程中的中雨以上降水预报能力优于主观预报,而主观预报对两高辐合和切变线过程的强降水预报较好。Analyzed the temporal and spatial variation of the TS scores of the forecast of precipitation in Kunming by the WRF mode from 2013 to 2016.Used a mid-scale,WRF model system to simulate the rains of the last two years of the great scale weather system of Kunming,to conduct the evaluation of the forecast performance,and to analyze the WRF pattern forecast and the subjective forecast.Results showed that the precipitation spatial distribution of TS score except light rain is uneven,moderate rain TS score is better in southern and western region,the heavy rain TS score is in the southwest and the eastern region is optimal,TS score of rainstorm is the southeast and the northwest is best.WRF mode light rain and rainstorm TS score is lower than the subjective forecast.The forecast performance of WRF model and subjective forecast is better under shear line and mengwan storm system.WRF model in stationary front,southern trough,southwest vortex,and above the moderate rain in the process of westward typhoon rainfall prediction ability is superior to the subjective forecast,and the subjective forecast of convergence and strong precipitation forecast in the process of shear line is better.

关 键 词：WRF模式 天气系统 降水 模拟检验 TS评分 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P458