房地产税收与房地产价格关系研究——以青岛市为例  

Research on the Relationship between Real Estate Tax and Real Estate Price——Take Qingdao as an Example

作　　者：安普帅[1] 段勤勤[1] AN Pu-shuai;DUAN Qin-qin(Qingdao City Branch,People's Bank of China,Qingdao 266000)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行青岛市中心支行

出　　处：《财务与金融》2018年第2期67-74,共8页Accounting and Finance

摘　　要：近几年,我国房地产业得到了迅猛发展,房价居高不下,增长幅度呈现稳定向上态势,房地产业的相关收入在地方政府的财政收入贡献越来越大,房地产价格的波动与地方政府财政收入的关系也更加紧密。本文从青岛市房地产行业和当地社会经济实际情况出发,选取了房价、人均财政支出和房地产投资开发额指标作为解释标量,从计量经济学角度对当地房地产税收收入指标进行了理论和实证分析,并运用脉冲响应和方差贡献率对这种影响关系进行了深入研究。分析结果表明:通过本文的理论和实证分析,我们可以得到如下结论:短期来看,房地产投资开发额会对税收收入产生较为明显的正向影响,但是远期来看房价和人均财政支出的正向影响会逐渐增加,而房地产投资开发情况的影响持续性不足。最后,论文对从规范土地供应、优化房地产税收制度结构、建立健全房地产市场信息披露机制、拓宽财源渠道等方面提出了政策建议。In recent years,China's real estate industry has been developing rapidly,housing prices remain high,the growth rate showed a steady upward trend,the real estate industry-related income in the local government's fiscal revenue contribution is growing,real estate prices and local government fluctuations The relationship between fiscal revenue and more closely.Based on the actual situation of Qingdao real estate industry and local social economy,this paper chooses the index of housing price,per capita fiscal expenditure and real estate investment and development as the explanatory scalar,and makes a theoretical and empirical analysis of the local real estate tax revenue from the perspective of econometrics.This relationship is studied by using impulse response and variance contribution rate.The results show that,through the theoretical and empirical analysis of this paper,we can get the following conclusions:in the short term,the real estate investment and development will have a more obvious positive impact on tax revenue,but in the long-term view,the impact of housing prices and per capita fiscal expenditure will gradually increase,while the impact of real estate investment development is not sustained.Finally,this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on how to supply the land from the standard,optimize the structure of the real estate tax system,establish and improve the information disclosure mechanism of the real estate market and broaden the financial channel.

关 键 词：房地产 税收收入 财政支出 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]