西方对俄制裁三周年:普京政府的应对及其成效和影响  

The Third Anniversary of Western Sanctions against Russia:the Response,Effectiveness and Impact on the Putin Administration

作　　者：曲文轶 Qu Wenyi

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心、国际关系学院

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2018年第2期1-20,156,共21页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心项目(ZX2011YB000)与辽宁省教育厅项目(ZJ2014007)。

摘　　要：克里米亚入俄以及西方对俄制裁三年来,俄罗斯政治经济与外交发生了诸多变化。为应对制裁冲击,普京政府进行了全方位应对,重点是强化信息引导和政治控制,以保护主义和产业政策来扶植国内生产,将资源向强力部门和弱势群体倾斜,并借助新兴市场突破资金和技术封锁。迄今为止普京的应对成效显著,一方面不仅维持了社会稳定,使俄罗斯经济向多元化目标迈出了实质步伐;另一方面,对抗也使居民生活和宏观经济恶化,拖累了创新发展进程,并带来深远的体制影响。发展目标让位于国际斗争与政治稳定的需要,国家越来越多地发挥监控与动员发展的职能,抑制了私人部门的主创性并推动体制向集中化方向演进。无论从地缘政治还是地缘经济角度,转向东方和亚太——世界经济的发动机和重心,都是俄罗斯国家发展的长期战略,也是大势所趋。在当下新一轮总统选举周期、普京政府急于改善经济状况的背景下,中国在开展对俄合作中无疑获得了更大空间。To response to sanctions,Russia has carried out the comprehensive measures,including strengthening information guide and political control,fostering domestic production by protectionism and industrial policy,putting more resource to the powerful departments and vulnerable groups,and breaking through capital and technology blockade with the help of emerging markets.These measures have maintained social stability and pushed the Russian economy towards diversification.Western sanction aggravated Russian life and the macro economy on the one hand,it postponed the process of innovation and development and brought far-reaching institutional influence as well,on the other hand.Russia’s development goals have given way to the needs of the international struggle and political stability,state increasingly plays functions of monitoring and mobilizing the development.This inhibited the creativeness of the private sector and promoted centralization tendency of the state system.Looking to the east and the Asia-Pacific area--the engine and center of gravity of the world economy--is both a long-term strategy for the development of the Russia and the general trend.In the context of the current situation,China undoubtedly has more chances for cooperation with Russia.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 普京政府 西方经济制裁 社会稳定 

分 类 号：D851.2[政治法律—政治学]