卢布汇率与俄罗斯的经济结构:两部门视角  

The Ruble Exchange Rate and the Russian Economic Structure:Perspectives from Two Sectors

作　　者：刘来会 Liu Laihui

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学国际关系学院世界经济专业

出　　处：《俄罗斯东欧中亚研究》2018年第2期92-105,157,158,共15页Russian，East European & Central Asian Studies

摘　　要：长期以来,经济结构始终是影响俄罗斯经济的重要因素,俄罗斯也一直没能摆脱结构性问题的制约,现有文献一般考察制度转型、资源依赖等对经济结构的影响,对于卢布汇率对经济结构的作用则缺乏相应的分析。众所周知,2014年卢布汇率急剧贬值,引发了世界对俄罗斯经济的担忧,那么卢布汇率波动对俄罗斯经济结构有什么影响呢?本文从贸易部门和非贸易部门的两部门视角入手,分析卢布汇率波动的结构性影响,尝试回答这个问题。研究表明,俄罗斯的贸易部门和非贸易部门发展失衡,贸易部门发展滞后,后劲不足;卢布汇率显著影响到俄罗斯的经济结构,卢布汇率升值会加剧两部门发展失衡,相反,卢布汇率贬值两部门失衡状态会得以缓解。For a long time,the economic structure as an important factor is influencing the Russian economy,and Russia hasn’t been able to get rid of the restriction of structural problems.The existing papers studied the impact of system transformation and resource dependence on the economic structure,lacking the research of the ruble exchange rate impact on the economic structure.The sharp depreciation of the ruble exchange rate in 2014 has raised concerns about the Russian economy.From two perspectives of the trade and non-trade sectors,the ruble exchange rate significantly affects the economic structure of Russia.The appreciation of the ruble will aggravate the imbalance between the two sectors.On the contrary,it will alleviate.

关 键 词：俄罗斯 卢布汇率 经济结构 贸易部门 非贸易部门 

分 类 号：F151.2[经济管理—世界经济]