政治互疑条件下的东北亚区域能源合作路径——兼论“一带一路”倡议与东北亚区域能源合作  

Political Mistrust and Paths for Energy Cooperation: The Belt and Road Initiative and Regional Energy Cooperation in Northeast Asia

作　　者：朴光姬[1] 郭霞[1] 李芳 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院亚太与全球战略研究院 [2]中国社会科学院亚洲太平洋研究系

出　　处：《当代亚太》2018年第2期68-91,157,158,共25页Journal of Contemporary Asia-Pacific Studies

摘　　要：东北亚的资源分布和各国经济发展状况均具有进行能源互补型合作的条件,需要探索的是在缺乏政治互信的条件下,通过能源合作提升区域能源安全的路径。文章从构建区域能源合作的理论框架切入,分别考察了欧盟和北美的区域能源合作机制建设过程,并以能源资源赋存、供求关系和政治互信这三个基础性条件入手,分析其各自的合作特点。在此基础上,进一步解读东北亚区域能源合作进展缓慢的症结。文章认为,"一带一路"倡议中的能源通道和基础设施建设,能缓解直至解决东北亚区域能源供给不足问题,而这些相对小范围的双边合作实际上是将区域能源合作进程在时间和空间上进行充分切割,以局部互信回避全局互疑,以拼图式的累积渐进到区域整体范围的合作,这为东北亚地区在缺乏政治互信条件下逐步开展区域能源合作提供了可行路径。The distribution of resources across Northeast Asia and the level of economic development of the various states complement one another such that the conditions are ripe for energy cooperation.What needs to be explored is the path for advancing regional energy security through energy cooperation in the absence of political trust.In this paper,we develop a theoretical framework for regional energy cooperation,which we use to consider the process that Europe and North America went through in terms of establishing mechanisms for such cooperation.The framework identifies three foundational conditions for cooperation:availability of energy resources,supply and demand,and political trust,and applies these to analyze the characteristics of energy cooperation in each case.Based on this analysis,this paper turns next to exploring why progress on energy cooperation has been so slow in Northeast Asia.It is argued that the energy channels and infrastructure proposed by the Belt and Road Initiative can alleviate or even resolve the problem of regional energy supply shortage.In reality,it is relatively small-scale modes of bilateral cooperation which build space and time for regional energy cooperation and mutual trust to take root.Progress incooperation is gradually accumulated,and region-wide cooperation can become possible.In this way,Northeast Asia can gradually establish a platform for regional energy cooperation,even in the face of a lack of political trust.

关 键 词：东北亚 能源合作 政治互疑 “一带一路”倡议 

分 类 号：F125.4[经济管理—世界经济] F426.2