碳市场的稳定机制:一项实验经济学研究  

The Stability Mechanism of the Carbon Market: A Study of Experimental Economics

作　　者：魏立佳[1] 彭妍 刘潇 WEI Li-jia;PENG Yan;LIU Xiao(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院、行为科学研究实验中心 [2]武汉大学经济与管理学院 [3]清华大学经济管理学

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2018年第4期174-192,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“车牌拍卖、摇号与拥堵收费:城市汽车管制的理论与实验研究”(批准号71403192)。

摘　　要：本文运用实验经济学方法 ,在全国碳市场刚刚启动之际,探讨碳配额的市场波动风险及其稳定机制。本文从欧盟、北美、中国广东等现行碳市场的管控政策中分别抽象出数量稳定、价格稳定和价量联动稳定三种机制,并运用理论建模和经济学实验的方法加以分析。研究发现,宏观经济周期和企业的非理性交易会对碳市场的波动产生推波助澜的作用。面对碳配额价格的巨大波动,价量联动稳定和价格稳定机制能够较好地维护市场的交易理性,此时企业生产效率较高,社会总福利较大。数量稳定和无稳定机制的市场表现都不尽如人意。特别是在碳配额过量供给的情况下,价量联动稳定机制的市场表现尤为突出,在价格稳定性、产量稳定性、社会效率等方面相对其他稳定机制有明显优势。各类型的市场稳定机制对企业的影响也各不相同,其中低排放企业相对于高排放企业在价量联动稳定的碳市场中占据最大优势,在其他稳定机制的碳市场中优势要小得多。By using the method of experimental economics,this paper explores the risk of market volatility of carbon allowance and its stability mechanism in the forthcoming of China’s national carbon market.In this paper,the stability policies of the current carbon markets such as the E U,North America and Guangdong are summarized to price stability,price-quantity stability and quantity stability mechanisms,and theoretical modeling and economics experiments are conducted.This paper finds that the macroeconomic cycle and the irrational carbon permits trades of enterprises have contributed to the volatility of the carbon market.In the face of huge volatility of carbon price,price-quantity stability and price stability mechanisms can better maintain the market’s trading rationality,the higher the production efficiency of enterprises and the larger the total social welfare.The market performance of both quantity and non-stability mechanisms is unsatisfactory.In the case of over-allocation of carbon allowances,the market performance of the price-quantity stability mechanism is particularly prominent,which has obvious advantages over other stability mechanisms in terms of price stability,production stability and social efficiency.The impact of various types of market stability mechanisms on enterprises also varies.Low-emission enterprises have the largest advantage over high-emission enterprises in the carbon market with price-quantity stability mechanism,and have much less advantages in the carbon markets of other stability mechanisms.

关 键 词：碳排放权 配额 市场稳定储备 实验 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济]