人民币有效汇率变动对我国体育用品制造业进出口贸易的影响——基于2003-2014年度数据的实证分析  

Effects of Experience Value on Perceived Quality of Small-scale Sports Events:Moderating Impact of RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate on Import &Export of China's Sports Goods Manufacturing:An Empirical Study Based on Data through 2003-2014

作　　者：王学实[1] 潘磊[2] WANG Xueshi;PAN Lei(Lottery Institute,Wuhan Sports Univ.,Wuhan 430079,China;Graduate School,Wuhan Sports Univ.,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉体育学院彩票研究所,湖北武汉430079 [2]武汉体育学院研究生院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《武汉体育学院学报》2018年第4期38-43,共6页Journal of Wuhan Sports University

基　　金：国家体育总局哲学社会科学一般项目(2279SS16016)

摘　　要：以我国体育用品制造业进出口年度数据为研究对象,采用单位根检验、协整技术分析和向量误差修正模型等研究方法实证分析了人民币有效汇率变动对我国体育用品制造业进出口贸易的影响。结果表明最近几年,相对于体育用品制造业对外贸易的人民币实际有效汇率呈现平稳上升趋势;人民币实际有效汇率上升对体育用品制造业出口产生非常明显的抑制效应,且长期比短期影响效果更加显著;对进口则产生积极的促进作用,长期影响效果低于短期影响效果;贸易开放程度对于进出口贸易均产生正向作用;马歇尔-勒纳条件对于我国体育用品制造业来说是成立的。根据上述结论,探讨了该现象的形成原因,并就人民币实际有效汇率变动对我国体育用品制造业对外贸易产生的影响进行了分析。最后根据研究和讨论分析的结果提出了基于人民币实际有效汇率变动的我国体育用品制造业发展的应对策略。This paper adopted time series ADF,co integration and VEC models to analyze the RMB real effective exchange rate from 2003 to 2014,which proved to have affected the sports goods manufacture in the long term and the short term import&export as well.The results showed that in the recent years,RMB real effective exchange rate of the sports goods manufacture foreign trade rose steadily.The rate had a very significant inhibitory effect,and had more significant effects in the long term than that in the short term.However,RMB real effective exchange rate had a positive role.The long term effects were less than the short term,and Marshall-Lerner condition was established.According to the findings,the paper put forth relative countermeasures.

关 键 词：人民币有效汇率 体育用品制造业 进出口贸易 贸易政策 马歇尔-勒纳条件 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]