技术变革与战争“迷雾”演化  

Technological Changes and Metamorphose of the Fog of War

作　　者：刘树才[1] LIU Shucai

机构地区：[1]复旦大学国际问题研究院

出　　处：《国际展望》2018年第4期80-97,155,156,共19页Global Review

基　　金：上海市哲学社会科学规划项目"当代西方军事革命的思想史考察(1991-2016)"(2017BZX007)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：随着半自主武器和人工智能应用于军事领域,战争的智能化成为学术界研究的重要课题。乐观者相信技术驱散了战争"迷雾",战争变成了精确打击;悲观者则认为技术在增加透明度的同时引发了伦理"迷雾"。为了解决这种二元对立,通过克劳塞维茨的战争"迷雾"说的分析框架来梳理信息时代技术与战争"迷雾"的演化史,研究结论表明劳累、危险、情报的不确定性和偶然性是造成战争"迷雾"的四种因素。工业时代的平台中心战存在情报不足、沟通不畅、协作不够等问题,网络中心战利用信息技术和系统集成理念推进平台间的合作,提升了信息优势,丰富了人们对信息的性质和地位的认识。但网络中心战未能解决"危险"和"劳累"带来的问题,同时引发了信息过载的问题。智能技术部分地解决了上述不足,但其压缩了军人的活动空间,忽略了战争是"活的反应",贬低了精神的力量,重新划定了人机边界。未来很长一段时间内,人机融合将是战争中需要解决的新"迷雾"。可见,人工智能未能驱散"迷雾",只是改变了"迷雾"的形态。因此,只有准确把握战争"迷雾"的形态,才有可能有针对性地降低"迷雾"的影响。With the application of semi-autonomous weapons and artificial intelligence in the military field,the intelligentization of war has become a crucial issue for academic research.Optimists believe that technology dispels the“fog”of war and that war has become a surgical strike;pessimists believe that technology has caused an ethical“fog”while increasing transparency.In order to resolve this binary opposition,this article starts from Clausewitz’s discourse“fog of war”which includes four factors:fatigue,danger,uncertainty of information and chance etc.,and outlines the evolution of interaction between war and technology in the information era.The platform-centric warfare in the industrial era has problems such as insufficient information,poor communication,and uncoordinated cooperation.The network-centric warfare uses information technology and system integration concepts to promote cooperation between platforms,enhances information edge,and enriches people's understanding on the nature and status of information.However,this warfare failed to solve the problems caused by"danger"and"fatigue"and caused the problem of information overload.Intelligent technology partly solved the above-mentioned deficiencies,but it compressed the agent’s space,ignoring the“living reaction”nature of war,degrading the power of mentality,and re-defining the human-machine boundary.In the near future,man-machine integration will be a new“fog”that needs to be resolved in the war.It can be seen that artificial intelligence failed to dispel“fog”,but changed the form of“fog”.Therefore,only by accurately understanding the form of the"fog"of war,can it be possible to reduce its negative influence.

关 键 词：战争“迷雾” 人工智能 网络中心战 平台中心战 技术变革 

分 类 号：F869[经济管理] TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]