产出缺口对实际有效汇率的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Output Gap on Real Effective Exchange Rate

作　　者：李俊峰[1,2] LI Jun-feng(Chongqing College of Finance Economics,Chongqing 402160;Institute of Chinese Financial Studies,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics Chengdu,Sichuan 611130)

机构地区：[1]重庆财经职业学院,重庆402160 [2]西南财经大学中国金融研究中心,四川成都611130

出　　处：《天津商务职业学院学报》2018年第3期35-42,共8页Journal of Tianjin College of Commerce

基　　金：重庆市教委科技项目“非平衡增长-极弦理论--以重庆为例、兼论成渝城市群发展战略的微观机理”(项目编号:KJ1604002)阶段性成果

摘　　要：从微观经济主体的效用函数出发,对贸易品与非贸易品的价格形成机制进行推导,得出产出缺口提升会导致实际汇率升值的假设。通过差分GMM和系统GMM模型对2001-2014年24个国家的年度数据进行分析,可知产出缺口等相关因素对实际汇率具有显著影响。产出缺口的变化反映了经济体实际产出与潜在产出的差异变化,其通过价格的渠道影响实际汇率,进而证实了产出缺口对实际汇率的正向影响作用。基于此,建议政府要通过财政支出影响经济体增长路径,更要应采取优化营商条件、合理配置要素禀赋等措施,以实现最优增长目标。Starting from the utility function of micro economic subject,with the price formation mechanism of trade and non-trade inference,this paper concludes that the output gap ascension will lead to the assumption of the real exchange rate appreciation.The difference GMM and system GMM models were used to analyze the annual data of 24 countries from 2001 to 2014.It can be seen that the output gap and other relevant factors have a significant impact on the real exchange rate.Variation of the output gap reflects the economy changes between actual output and potential output,the price influenced by the real exchange rate,and then confirms the output gap positive effect on the real exchange rate.The government not only can influence the growth path of the economy through fiscal expenditure,but also should take measures such as optimizing business conditions and allocating factor endowment reasonably to achieve the optimal growth target.

关 键 词：产出缺口 实际有效汇率 效用 

分 类 号：F832[经济管理—金融学] F752.62