雷达估测降雨水平分辨率对径流模拟的影响——以西苕溪流域为例  

INFLUENCE OF RADAR RAINFALL HORIZONTAL RESOLUTION ON HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION——A CASE STUDY OF XITIAOXI WATERSHED

作　　者：高玉芳[1] 陈耀登[1] 彭涛[2] GAO Yu-fang;CHEN Yao-deng;PENG Tao(Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology,College of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Hubei Key Laboratory for Heavy Rain Monitoring and Warning Research,Institute of Heavy Rain,CMA,Wuhan 430074)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/江苏省农业气象重点实验室,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所/暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《热带气象学报》2018年第3期347-352,共6页Journal of Tropical Meteorology

基　　金：南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室开放基金资助(JKLAM1503);国家自然科学基金项目(41675102);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(201506002);中国气象局"气象资料质量控制及多源数据融合与再分析"项目共同资助

摘　　要：天气雷达估测降雨是径流模拟和洪水预报的重要信息之一。由于雷达网格降雨存在误差,且误差随着网格水平尺度的增大而减小,因此对于径流模拟,高分辨率的雷达降雨数据并不意味着径流模拟的精度更高。采用FSS(Fractions Skill Score)方法和HEC-HMS模型(Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System)分析江苏省西苕溪流域雷达估测降雨水平分辨率对径流模拟的影响。在2010年和2011年夏季两场降雨实例中,雷达估测降雨在不同降雨阈值情况下,FSS达到目标精度值对应的最小有效水平尺度为2~8 km,分别以2、4、6、8 km水平分辨率的雷达估测降雨和雨量站测雨作为HEC-HMS模型输入进行径流模拟,结果表明:基于不同水平分辨率的雷达估测降雨的径流模拟结果与实测径流资料基本吻合,雷达估测降雨2、4、6、8 km水平分辨率的变化对径流模拟效果的影响不明显。Weather radar rainfall is one of the important information for runoff simulation and flood forecasting.Because each grid point rainfall value is susceptible to error,and radar rainfall error decreases as the temporal and spatial scales increase,high resolution does not necessarily equate to higher accuracy in applications such as hydrological simulation.In this paper,the Fractions Skill Score(FSS)and HEC-HMS(Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System)are used to analyze the influence of radar rainfall horizontal resolution on hydrological simulation.In the two summer events from 2010 to 2011 in the Xitiaoxi River basin,FSS can achieve the target precision value at minimum effective horizontal scale of approximately 2-8 km with different radar rainfall threshold.Radar rainfall at the horizontal resolution of 2,4,6 and 8km is used as input data in the HEC-HMS model.Analysis of the simulation results reveals that the results of runoff simulation based on different horizontal resolution radar rainfall are basically consistent with the measured runoff data,and the influence of radar rainfall horizontal resolution at 2,4,6 and 8 km on hydrological simulation is not obvious.

关 键 词：应用气象学 雷达估测降雨 FSS方法 径流 水平分辨率 

分 类 号：P406[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]