基于CA-Markov模型的天津滨海新区土地利用变化模拟  

Simulation of Land Use Change in Tianjin Binhai New Area Based on CA-Markov Model

作　　者：李贤江 石淑芹[1] 蔡为民[1] 曹玉青[1] LI Xianjiang;SHI Shuqin;CAI Weimin;CAO Yuqing(School of Management,Tianjin Polytechnic University,Tianjin 300387,China)

机构地区：[1]天津工业大学管理学院,天津300387

出　　处：《广西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第3期133-143,共11页Journal of Guangxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金(D2015302028);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(16YJCZH082;16YJC630149);科技基础性工作专项项目(2013FY110900);中央公益性科研院所专项资金(720-36)

摘　　要：本文基于天津滨海新区2005、2010和2015年3期土地利用数据,运用动态度等模型定量化分析了研究区内土地利用的变化情况。通过CA-Markov模型合理预测了研究区未来的土地利用格局,并将2015年模拟数据与2015年实际解译数据进行精度检验,根据扩展的kappa指数可知2个图层间的一致性程度较高,说明模拟的精度较好。进而对2025年的土地利用格局进行了模拟预测,结果表明:与2005—2015年相比,2015—2025年研究区内的土地利用类型主要以水域、城乡工矿居民用地和耕地为主;其中城乡工矿居民用地在原来的基础上将继续向外扩展,水域的面积将持续增加,林地、草地和未利用地的面积将持续减少,耕地面积将持续大幅度减少;土地利用的变化幅度较大。这表明研究区未来的土地利用压力将进一步加大,应提前做好相关应对措施。本文研究可为天津滨海新区未来的土地利用规划提供相关参考。Based on the land use data of 2005,2010 and 2015 in Tianjin Binhai New Area,this paper quantitatively analyzes the change of land use in the study area by using the dynamic degree model.The CA-Markov model is used to predict the future land use pattern of the study area,and the simulation data of 2015 and the actual interpretation data in 2015 are verified.According to the extended kappa index,the consistency between the two layers is high,indicating that the simulation accuracy is better.And then the land use pattern in 2025 was simulated and predicted,the results are as follows:compared with the period from 2005 to 2015,the land use types in the study area during the 2015-2025 period are mainly based on the waters,urban and rural mining and residential land and cultivated land.The area of urban and rural industrial and mining residents will continue to expand on the basis of the original,the area of water will continue to increase,the area of woodland,grassland and unused land will continue to decrease,the area of cultivated land will continue to decrease significantly,and land use change is larger.This indicates that the future land use pressure of the study area will be further increased,which indicates that relevant response should be done in advance.This study provides the relevant basis for the future land use planning of Tianjin Binhai New Area.

关 键 词：天津滨海新区 土地利用动态度 CA-Markov模型 精度检验 规划 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]