汇率传递异质性、中间品贸易与中国货币政策  

Heterogeneity of Exchange-Rate Pass-Through,Intermediate Goods Trade and Monetary Policy in China

作　　者：石峰 王忏[3] 龚六堂 Shi Feng;Wang Chan;Gong Liutang

机构地区：[1]北京大学光华管理学院 [2]北京大学数量经济与数理金融教育部重点实验室,100871 [3]中央财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《世界经济》2018年第7期25-48,共24页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：中央财经大学青年教师发展基金(QJJ1707)和中央财经大学金融学院新进教师科研启动基金项目的资助。

摘　　要：中国是中间品和消费品的重要进口国,且汇率对二者国内价格的传递程度存在差异。本文分析了汇率不完全传递和中间品贸易对货币政策的影响。基准模型中,中间品作为投入要素生产消费品,进口中间品传递程度影响本国中间品产出和消费品价格,进口消费品传递程度影响本国消费品产出和中间品价格。由于本国消费品价格黏性较高,消费品价格波动成为决定福利的重要因素,因此中间品汇率传递程度对政策影响更为显著。此外,敏感性分析发现,货币政策的福利依赖于进口中间品与消费品的相对汇率传递程度。当进口中间品传递程度低于消费品时,中央银行应钉住本国消费品价格;反之,则应稳定中间品价格。China plays an important role in international trade with intermediate input goods and final consumption goods,with distinct degrees of exchange-rate pass-through to these two categories.We introduce the intermediate goods trade and incomplete exchange-rate pass-through into an otherwise standard open economy model,and investigate their implications for monetary policy.In the benchmark model,the degree of exchange-rate pass-through to imported intermediate goods contributes to volatilities,both for the intermediate output gap and for consumption PPI in domestic economy,while the degree of exchange-rate pass-through to imported consumption goods leads to movements,both for the consumption output gap and intermediate PPI in domestic economy.The volatility of domestic consumption goods is the crucial ingredient to determine the consequences of social welfare because it is more staggered than input goods.As a result,the effect of the incomplete exchange-rate pass-through to input goods on social welfare is significant.Sensitivity analysis reveals that welfare performances crucially depend on the relative degree of incomplete pass-through to the imported intermediate and consumption goods.If the degree of exchange rate pass-through to imported intermediate goods is less than consumption goods,it is optimal to stabilize the PPI in the domestic consumption goods sector and vice versa.

关 键 词：汇率不完全传递 中间品贸易 贝叶斯估计 泰勒法则 福利分析 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易] F822.0[经济管理—产业经济] F832.6