1961～2014年中国冬季极端低温变化特征分析  

Changes in Extreme Low Temperature in China in the Winters from 1961 to 2014

作　　者：谢星旸 游庆龙[1,2,3] 王雨枭 XIE Xingyang;YOU Qinglong;WANG Yuxiao(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044;Institute of Climate Change and Evaluation between China and UK,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044;Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学中英气候变化与评估研究所,南京210044 [3]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京210044

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2018年第4期429-441,共13页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目2016YFA0601700;江苏省杰出青年基金项目BK20140047~~

摘　　要：利用中国691个无缺测站点的经均一化处理及质量控制的逐日最高、最低气温资料,基于冷昼日数、冷夜日数、霜冻日数、冰冻日数、月最低气温极大值以及月最低气温极小值等6个由世界气象组织定义的极端气温指数,分析了1961~2014年中国冬季的极端低温变化特征。结果表明:冷昼日数、冷夜日数、霜冻日数以及冰冻日数在全国大部分地区均呈现下降的趋势,下降趋势较为明显的区域集中在东北南部、华北、西北东部、华东、华中、西南及高原地区,全国整体上下降幅度分别为-0.9 d/10 a、-1.7 d/10 a、-1.5 d/10a和-1.4 d/10 a。最低气温极大值和最低气温极小值在全国范围内则主要呈现上升的趋势,全国整体上分别为0.4°C/10 a和0.6°C/10 a;极端低温天数在20世纪60年代至70年代中后期呈现波动状,随后自20世纪70年代末80年代初至21世纪初呈明显下降趋势,从2006年左右以后其下降趋势较之前有所减缓,是对全球变暖减缓背景下的气候响应;与其他时间段相比,20世纪60年代至70年代为冬季极端低温事件较为频发的时间段,这可能与该时段陆地冷高压频繁活动有关。Based on the six indices of temperature extreme defined by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO),this study discusses the extreme low temperature change in China in the winters from 1961 to 2014 by analyzing the daily maximum temperature(Tmax)and minimum temperature(Tmin)data at 691 stations that have no missing values and pass the homogeneity processing1and quality control checks.The results show that the numbers of cool days,cool nights,frost days,and ice days have decreased in most part of China,particularly in the southern part of Northwest China,North China,the eastern part of Northwest China,East China,central China,Southwest China,and plateau regions with the trends of-0.9 d/10 a,-1.7 d/10 a,-1.5d/10 a,and-1.4 d/10 a,respectively.The maximum Tmin and minimum Tmin in the winter have increased across the country with the trends of 0.4°C/10 a and 0.6°C/10 a,respectively.The number of days of extreme low temperature fluctuated from the 1960s to the mid-1970s,and then exhibited a downward trend from the late 1970s and the early 1980s to the beginning of the 21th century while the declining trend started to slow down since 2006,which is a response to the global warming hiatus.Compared with other periods,the period from the 1960s to the 1970s represented a period with higher occurrence frequency of extreme low temperature events in the winter,which is possibly associated with the frequency and intensity of cold high pressure system over the land.

关 键 词：冬季 极端气温指数 变化特征 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]