遗传算法对RVM短期风速预测模型的多参数同步优化  

Multi-parameter synchronous optimization of genetic algorithm for RVM short-term wind speed prediction model

作　　者：董利江 李伟 王瑜[3] 钱白云 沈中信 马勤勇 孔筱叶 DONG Lijiang;LI Wei;WANG Yu;QIAN Baiyun;SHEN Zhongxin;MA Qinyong;KONG Xiaoye(Xinjiang Electric Power Construction Commission,Urumqi 830011,China;Electric Power Research Institute of Xinjiang Electric Power Company,State Grid Corporation of China,Urumqi 830000,China;Department of Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Baoding 071003,China;Sichuan Radiation Technology Co.,Ltd.,Chengdu 610000,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆电力建设调试所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [2]国网新疆电力公司电力科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830000 [3]华北电力大学电子工程系,河北保定071003 [4]四川中测辐射科技有限公司,四川成都610000

出　　处：《中国测试》2018年第7期13-18,共6页China Measurement & Test

基　　金：国家电网公司科技项目资助(TSHT-FW-2017-20)

摘　　要：该文利用混沌理论中的相空间重构方法,对基于相关向量机的风速预测模型的训练样本进行构建,然而通过混沌理论求出的相空间参数(嵌入维数E和时间延迟τ)往往不是预测模型的最优解。针对预测模型超参数优化问题,提出一种基于遗传算法的多参数优化方法,即对E、τ以及相关向量机核参数σ进行同步优化。该方法首先基于遗传算法搜索相关向量机预测模型参数(E、τ、σ)的全局最优解,进而建立预测模型;然后对待预测风速时间序列进行预测;最后以2组实际风速数据为例进行实验研究,并与对比模型方法(只优化参数σ)进行对比。结果表明:该文模型不仅具有较低的预测误差,而且可提高预测效率,缩短预测时间。Phase space reconstruction method in chaos theory is applied to construct the training sample of wind speed prediction model of relevance vector machine.However,phase space parameters(embedding dimension E and time delayτ)calculated by chaos theory are usually not the optimal solution of prediction model.As for hyperparameter optimization problems of prediction model,a multi-parameter optimization method based on genetic algorithm is proposed to optimize E,τandσ(kernel function parameter)synchronously.Firstly,this method searches the global optimal solution of relevance vector machine prediction model parameters(E,τ,σ)based on genetic algorithm,then establishes the prediction model.Secondly,it treats the prediction of the time series of the predicted wind speed.Finally,two groups of actual wind speed data are adopted for wind speed time series and compared with contrast model method(optimize parameterσonly).The results show that the model does not only have higher prediction accuracy,but also can improve prediction efficiency and shorten prediction time.

关 键 词：参数优化 风速预测 相关向量机 遗传算法 空间重构 

分 类 号：TK89[动力工程及工程热物理—流体机械及工程]