耦合约束动态地块分裂和矢量元胞自动机的城市扩张模拟  

Urban Expansion Simulation by Integrating Constrained Dynamic Land Parcel Subdivision and Vector-Based Cellular Automata

作　　者：刘鹏华[1,2] 刘小平 姚尧[1,2] 张金宝 何执兼[1,2] 洪晔 LIU Peng-hua;LIU Xiao-ping;YAO Yao;ZHANG Jin-bao;HE Zhi-jian;HONG Ye(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275;Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275 [2]广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510275

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2018年第4期74-82,共9页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41671398)

摘　　要：矢量元胞自动机模型(VCA)能精细地模拟城市土地利用变化,在VCA中引入合理的地块分裂规则更符合城市扩张高度破碎化的特点。由于地块破碎及其模拟实现的复杂性,目前已有研究尚未考虑地块的动态分裂。该文提出了一种对地块分裂进行约束的矢量元胞自动机模型(Constrained Dynamic Land Parcel Subdivision and Vectorbased Cellular Automata,CDLPS-VCA),通过形状、坡度、邻域来约束动态地块分裂过程,采用逻辑回归模型挖掘转换规则,并耦合矢量元胞自动机进行城市扩张模拟。该模型被应用于深圳市宝安区2009-2014年的城市扩张模拟,结果表明:与VCA和DLPS-VCA相比,CDLPS-VCA能获得最高的模拟精度(FoM=0.266,分别提高了0.046和0.020)和最相似的空间格局(al=86.08%,分别提高了11.30%和3.11%),说明在VCA中有机融合合理的地块分裂过程,能更精确地模拟土地利用变化;同时,基于模拟结果识别出了宝安中心组团、西部工业组团、西部高新组团3个城市发展热点区域。该方法能准确地模拟城市化进程,为城市土地利用监测和城市发展规划提供依据。Vector-based cellular automata model(VCA)can simulate urban land use change in fine scale,and the integration of reasonable land parcel subdivision and VCA is more in line with the highly fragmented characteristic of urban expansion.However,due to the complexity of block fragmentation and simulation implementation,few existing researches took the dynamic division of land parcels into consideration.This paper proposed a constrained dynamic land parcel subdivision and vector-based cellular automata model(CDLPS-VCA)to simulate the process of urban sprawl at land parcel level.The dynamic land parcel subdivision is constrained by parcel shape,slope and neighborhood.In addition,logistic regression is adopted to explore the transition rules of urban expansion.The model was applied to the urban expansion simulation in Baoan District of Shenzhen from 2009 to 2014.Compared with the VCA and DLPS-VCA,CDLPS-VCA achieved the highest simulation accuracy(FoM=0.266,increased 0.046 and 0.020,respectively)and the most similar spatial patterns(a l=86.08%,increased 11.30%and 3.11%,respectively),which suggests that the coupling of reasonable land parcel splitting process in the VCA can accurately simulate land use change.In the meantime,the three urban development hotspots,namely Baoan center group,western industrial group and western high-tech group,were identified based on the simulation results.The methods proposed in this study can accurately simulate the urbanization process and provide guidance for urban land use monitoring and urban development planning.

关 键 词：约束动态地块分裂 矢量元胞自动机 逻辑回归 城市扩张 热点分析 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程] P237[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]