典型场选取对多要素气候态相似季节划分的影响  

The impacts of the typical fields on the season identification using the multi-factors climate state similarity measurement

作　　者：王正[1] 支蓉[2] 封国林[1,2] 李淑萍[1] WANG Zheng;ZHI Rong;FENG Guo-Lin;LI Shu-Ping(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;Laboratory for Climate Studies,National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学大气科学学院,兰州730000 [2]国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2018年第4期350-361,共12页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41575074)

摘　　要：多要素气候态相似季节划分法作为一种新的季节划分客观化方法,在近几年被广泛应用于气候变化研究、气候监测和短期气候预测等。该方法的关键之处在于多要素的融合和典型场的选取,其中典型场是指多要素气候态相似法中所选取的能代表冬季和夏季平均气候特征的气候态距平场。文中采用3种不同方案选取典型场:方法一,基于60年平均气候态选取典型场;方法二,基于30年平均气候态选取典型场;方法三,基于逐年气候态状况选取典型场。研究不同典型场的选取对多要素气候态相似季节划分法划分结果的可能影响,进而以1998年和2013年华中地区的季节划分为例,对第3种典型场划分方法的准确性进行论证。结果显示,典型场作为多要素气候态相似季节划分法的划分基准,对季节划分的结果至关重要,基于单年气候状况选取的典型场与基于多年平均气候态选取的典型场之间的差异存在年代际变化,且在气候变化的转折阶段差异尤为显著。基于第3种典型场选取方案的1998年和2013年季节划分结果能准确地反映当年华中地区气候态和大气环流的季节变化情况。As an objective identification method of seasonal division,the multi-factors climate state similarity measurement has been widely used in climate change research,climate monitoring and short-term climate prediction operations in recent years.The key point of the method lies in the fusion of multi factors and the selection of typical fields.In the multi-factors climate state similarity measurement,the typical field is the climate state anomaly field which can represent the winter and summer climate states.There were three different typical attempts in this paper(1)mean climate state typical field for 60 years,(2)mean climate state typical field for 30 years,and(3)mean climate state typical field for every year.Impacts of the typical field’s selection on the seasonal division by the multi-factors climate state similarity measurement have been analyzed,then,taking the Central China area in 1998 and 2013 as an example,the accuracy of the seasonal division results of third typical field is discussed.The results showed that,the typical field as the classification index of the multi-factors climate state similarity measurement is crucial to the seasonal division results and climate change research.The differences between the climate state typical field of a single year and multi-year average are interdecadal,and are bigger in the turning period of climate state change.The division results can accurately reflect the changes of the climate state and the regional atmospheric circulation in central China in 1998 and 2013.

关 键 词：多要素气候态相似季节划分法 典型场 气候态 气候变化 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]