互联网渗透、物流效率与中国网络零售发展——基于VAR模型的脉冲分析与方差分解  

Internet Penetration,Logistics Efficiency and Online Retail Development in China——Impulse Response and Variance Decomposition Based on VAR Model

作　　者：李怀政[1] LI Huai-zheng(School of Economics,Zhejiang Gongshang University,Hangzhou310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《中国流通经济》2018年第8期23-33,共11页China Business and Market

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金"主导网络零售企业市场势力规制研究"(LY14G030002);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"国内外市场一体化中的流通产业国际竞争力提升研究"(17JJD790020);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金"大型网络零售商市场势力及其规制研究"(13YJA790047);国家社会科学基金重点项目"我国互联网平台型企业市场势力的形成;影响及其规制研究"(17AJY014)

摘　　要：近年来,随着国内贸易流通体制改革的逐步深化、网络强国战略和"互联网+"行动计划付诸实施,我国网络零售逐渐呈现蓬勃发展势头,并将对零售业结构优化和传统零售企业转型升级产生深远影响。根据发达国家流通产业发展经验,网络零售的可持续发展主要受制于互联网渗透水平和物流效率。在网络零售交易成本最优化、扩展的二级CES生产函数理论逻辑基础上,利用我国网络零售业相关时间序列数据构建VAR模型,就互联网渗透水平、物流效率对网络零售发展的影响进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解发现,我国网络零售发展与互联网渗透水平、物流效率之间存在较为稳定的均衡关系;互联网渗透水平和物流效率均会将其受到的外部冲击传递到网络零售系统并产生积极促进作用,但网络零售对互联网渗透水平的脉冲响应较之物流效率更加敏感和显著;互联网渗透水平的贡献率远远超过了物流效率的贡献率,互联网渗透水平是影响网络零售发展最主要的因素。因此,为推动我国网络零售可持续发展,必须进一步加强零售业网络基础设施建设,提高网络传输效率,提升网络服务水平,降低交易成本,提高交易效率,增强零售服务国际竞争力;进一步提高互联网渗透率和网络零售技术研发水平,优化网络零售消费结构,提升网络零售消费质量;加快完善电子商务物流和配送体系,逐步提高网络零售绩效,构建网络化、数字化、智慧化、智能化的网络零售物流体系;逐步优化网络零售规制体系与相关制度安排,规范网络零售商及利益相关者行为,占据跨境电子商务规则制高点,为我国网络零售商嵌入全球价值链和全球供应网络夯实基础并提供保障。In recent years,with the gradual deepening of the reform in the field of domestic trade circulation system,the strategy of powerful trading country and the implementation of the“Internet plus”action plan,the online retail in China is becoming more and more vigorous,and it will have a profound influence on retail structure and transformation and upgrading of traditional retail enterprises.According to the experience of developed countries,the sustainable development of online retail is increasingly subject to the improvement of Internet penetration level and logistics efficiency.Firstly the paper builds a VAR model based on the theoretical logic of the optimization of online retail transaction costs and extended two level CES production function and time series data of China's online retail industry,and then makes impulse response analysis and variance decomposition on the impact of Internet penetration level and logistics efficiency on Chinese online retail.The results show that there is a stable and long-term equilibrium relationship between China's online retail development and Internet penetration level and logistics efficiency;the impulse response of online retail to the Internet penetration is more sensitive and significant than logistics efficiency,and the improvement of Internet penetration level is the most important factor in the development of online retail.In addition,it is recommended that China's online retail industry should further strengthen the construction of network infrastructure,promote the Internet penetration and the level of the research and development of online retail technology,improve the system of e-commerce logistics,and optimize the system of online retail regulation and its related institutional arrangements.

关 键 词：网络零售 互联网渗透 物流效率 二级CES生产函数 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F713.36[经济管理—产业经济]