基于KPCA-MEE的电力市场售电公司信用评价研究  

Study on Credit Evaluation of Power Supply Company in Power Market Based on KPCA-MEE

作　　者：张云雷 段光 俞静 王海潮[3] 张子筠 牛东晓[3] ZHANG Yunlei;DUAN Guang;YU Jing;WANG Haichao;ZHANG Zijun;NIU Dongxiao(State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company,Hangzhou 310007,China;Zhejiang Huayun Mdt InfoTech Ltd.,Hangzhou 310008,China;School of Economics and Management,North China Electrical Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]国网浙江省电力有限公司,浙江杭州310007 [2]浙江华云信息科技有限公司,浙江杭州310008 [3]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《中国电力》2018年第7期128-135,共8页Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71471059)~~

摘　　要：建立完善的售电公司信用评价体系,有助于规范电力市场交易、提高电力市场的机制建设和行业管理水平。将核主成分分析法和物元可拓理论相结合,构建KPCA-MEE售电公司信用评价模型。在所设计的售电公司信用评价指标体系基础上,采用核主成分分析法实现指标体系降维并确定指标权重,可有效避免主成分分析法中因各指标贡献率过度分散而影响评价效果的弊端。然后应用物元可拓理论对售电公司进行信用等级评价,解决评价对象的模糊性、不确定性问题,为等级评价提供可靠依据。基于4家售电公司的运营数据进行算例分析,计算结果证明该模型的有效性和合理性。Establishing a complete power supply company credit evaluation system is helpful for regulating power market trade and improving the mechanism construction and management level of power market.In this paper,the kernel principal component analysis method and the matter-element theory are combined together to establish a KPCA-MEE power supply company credit evaluation model.Based on the power supply company credit evaluation index system,the KPCA is applied to realize the dimensionality reduction and to determine the index weight.And then the matter-element extension theory is used to describe the process of credit rank evaluation.Finally,based on the data of four power supply companies,a case study is made to verify the validity of the proposed KPCA-MEE model.

关 键 词：电力市场 信用评价 核主成分分析 物元可拓 售电公司 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]