基于气象因子的PM2.5回归预测模型研究  

Research on the Regression Model of PM_(2.5) Concentration Based on Meteorological Parameters

作　　者：汪宇[1] 彭晓武[2] 沈劲[1] 嵇萍[1] 邓滢 谢敏[1] 陈多宏[1] WANG Yu;PENG Xiao-wu;SHEN Jin;JI Ping;DENG Ying;XIE Min;CHEN Duo-hong(State Environmental Key Laboratory of Regional Air Quality Monitoring,Guangdong Environmental Monitoring Center,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510308,China;South China Institute of Environmental Sciences,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510655,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省环境监测中心,国家环境保护区域空气质量监测重点实验室,广东广州510308 [2]环境保护部华南环境科学研究所,广东广州510655

出　　处：《环境监控与预警》2018年第4期8-11,共4页Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2014BAC21B04);国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(21477045)

摘　　要：采用Pearson相关系数分析了2013—2016年3大典型城市北京、南京和广州的ρ(PM_(2.5))与各气象因子的关系。结果表明,3个城市ρ(PM_(2.5))与各风速因子最大的相关系数依次为-0.44,-0.29和-0.37,与各气温因子最大的相关系数依次为-0.44,-0.33和-0.37,气压与南京和广州的ρ(PM_(2.5))正相关,气压因子最大的相关系数分别为0.25和0.34,湿度与北京ρ(PM_(2.5))正相关,与广州ρ(PM_(2.5))负相关,湿度因子最大的相关系数分别为0.49和-0.36,日照时数与北京ρ(PM_(2.5))相关系数为-0.46,降水量与南京和广州ρ(PM_(2.5))相关系数分别为-0.20和-0.24;采用逐步线性回归方法建立城市次日ρ(PM_(2.5))与气象因子的预测模型,复合相关系数分别为0.722 8,0.770 6和0.809 9。模型预测3个城市2016年PM_(2.5)年均值分别偏高4,5和3μg/m3,日均值平均相对误差为±45.6%,±32.9%和±26.0%,模型对高ρ(PM_(2.5))普遍低估。Using Pearson correlation coefficient,relationship between PM2.5 concentration[ρ(PM2.5]and meteorological factors in three typical cities Beijing,Nanjing and Guangzhou were analyzed during 2013 to 2016.The results showed that the maximun correlation coefficient betweenρ(PM2.5)and wind speed factor in the three cities was-0.44,-0.29 and-0.37 in turn,and the maximun correlation coefficient was-0.44,-0.33 and-0.37 for the temperature factor.Atmospheric pressure was positively correlated withρ(PM2.5)in Nanjing and Guangzhou,and the maximum correlation coefficient of the pressure factor was 0.25 and 0.34,respectively.Humidity was positively correlated withρ(PM2.5)in Beijing but negatively correlated withρ(PM2.5)in Guangzhou,with the maximum correlation coefficient of humidity factor 0.49 and-0.36,respectively.The correlation coefficient between sunshine hours andρ(PM2.5)of Beijing was-0.46.The correlation coefficient between precipitation andρ(PM2.5)in Nanjing and Guangzhou was-0.20 and-0.24,respectively.The prediction model of next dayρ(PM2.5)and meteorological factors was established by the stepwise linear regression method,with the composite correlation coefficients being 0.722 8,0.770 6 and 0.809 9 respectively.Annual averageρ(PM 2.5)values in 2016 are overestimated by 4,5 and 3μg/m 3,while the average relative errors for daily mean are±45.6%,±32.9%and±26.0%,respectively The model generally underestimated the high value ofρ(PM2.5).

关 键 词：细颗粒物 气象因子 相关性 线性回归 北京 南京 广州 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]