中国建设“冰上丝绸之路”的战略选择--基于“态势分析法”(SWOT)的分析  

China's Strategic Choice of Building the “Silk Road on Ice”——A Study Based on the SWOT Analysis Method

作　　者：张木进 王晨光[1,2] Zhang Mujin;Wang Chenguang(China Institute of Boundary and Ocean Studies,Wuhan University)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学中国边界与海洋研究院 [2]武汉大学国家领土主权与海洋权益协同创新中心、国家治理与公共政策研究中心

出　　处：《和平与发展》2018年第4期111-125,130,共16页Peace and Development

基　　金：本文为国家重大专项“南北极环境综合考察与评估”子课题“极地国家政策研究”(CHINARE2016-04-05-05);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“中国参与极地治理战略研究”(14JZD032)。

摘　　要：随着北极自然环境的快速变化,北极资源的开发利用逐渐成为可能。俄罗斯是最大的北极国家,近年来为促进经济发展以及应对西方制裁,积极开发其北极地区并寻求中国的支持。2017年,中俄两国提出共建"冰上丝绸之路",这是把北极开发纳入"一带一路"倡议、深化中俄北极合作的战略性举措。本文利用战略管理中的SWOT分析法,对中国建设"冰上丝绸之路"的内外环境进行分析。分析显示,当前中国建设"冰上丝绸之路"宜采取机遇型战略,借助外部机遇来克服自身劣势,以实现向促进型战略的过渡。With the speedy change of the natural environment in the Arctic,the exploitation and utilization of the natural resources in the Arctic are gradually becoming possible.As the biggest Arctic country,Russia is actively developing its Arctic regions and seeking China’s support in this regard in recent years to promote its economic development and respond to the sanctions imposed by the West.In 2017,China and Russia proposed to jointly build the“Silk Road on Ice”,a strategic endeavor to incorporate the Arctic development into the“Belt and Road”initiative and deepen the Sino-Russia cooperation in the Arctic.This paper used the SWOT analysis method from the strategic management to study the internal and external environment for China to build the“Silk Road on Ice”.As the study shows,it is better for China to adopt an opportunistic strategy at present for building the“Silk Road on Ice”to overcome its own inferiority by capitalizing on the external opportunities so as to realize the transition to the facilitati ve strategy.

关 键 词：北极开发 冰上丝绸之路 战略选择 SWOT分析法 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]