公共政策评估的计量经济学方法运用刍议  

On the Application of Econometric Method in Public Policy Evaluation

作　　者：苑德宇[1] 宋小宁[2] YUAN Deyu;SONG Xiaoning(University of International Business and Economics,100029;Sun Yat-sen University,510275)

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]中山大学管理学院/现代会计与财务研究中心

出　　处：《财经智库》2018年第4期79-92,142,共15页Financial Minds

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"基础设施驱动经济空间集聚的理论机制;经验证据及政策方案优化研究"(71503042);国家社会科学基金重大项目"公共经济学理论体系创新研究"(14&ZDB121);广东省软科学项目"‘科技是第一生产力’:用DIDPSM方法评估省向县分权对县级财政科技投入的影响"(2013B070207004)

摘　　要：科学施政的前提是正确评估政策。近年来,计量经济学方法被广泛应用于公共政策效果评估,但时常被误用,这会得出错误的政策评估结论,进而误导政策制定者。为了避免这一问题,研究者需要准确把握各类公共政策评估方法的适用前提和技术要点。赛鲁利(Cerulli,2015)的《社会经济政策的计量经济学评估:理论与应用》一书系统介绍了公共政策效果评估的各种计量经济学方法的适用前提和范围,可为研究者提供相关知识补充和应用参考。本文基于这一著作,对常见的公共政策评估方法进行了对比和归纳,期望对相关政策评估研究有所裨益。The prerequisite for scientific governance is the correct assessment of policies.In recent years,econometric methods have been widely used in the evaluation of public policy effects,but they are often misused,which leads to wrong policy evaluation conclusions,and thus misleads policy makers.In order to avoid this problem,researchers need to accurately grasp the premise and technical points of various public policy evaluation methods.Econometrics Assessment of Social and Economic Policy:Theory and Applications(Cerulli,2015)introduces the applicable premises and scope of various econometric methods for public policy effectiveness assessment,which can be provided to researchers for related knowledge supplements and application references.Based on this work,this paper compares and generalizes common public policy assessment methods to benefi t from relevant policy evaluation research as expected.

关 键 词：社会经济政策 政策评估 计量经济学 

分 类 号：C02[社会学] H10[语言文字—汉语]