基于系统动力学的城市轨道交通PPP项目风险影响因素研究  

Study on risk factors in transit PPP project based on system dynamics

作　　者：谢婷 刘景矿[1] 庞永师[1] Xie Ting;Liu Jingkuang;Pang Yongshi

机构地区：[1]广州大学,广东广州510006

出　　处：《现代城市轨道交通》2018年第8期77-82,共6页Modern Urban Transit

摘　　要：PPP融资模式已运用于我国的城市轨道交通项目中,但城市轨道交通PPP项目风险因素众多,各利益相关方承担风险较大,制定出合理的风险管理措施是项目成功的关键。在文献研究的基础上总结得到影响城市轨道交通PPP项目的主要风险因素,利用系统动力学对其不同阶段的风险路径进行分析,最后得到风险因素因果关系反馈图,并确定不同风险因素对城市轨道交通PPP项目的影响机理,从而提出应对措施。The mode of PPP financing has been in urban rail transit projects in China for several years.All the stakeholders bear great risk because of the numerous risk factors in urban rail transit PPP project.To develop reasonable risk management measures is the key to a successful project.Based on the study of related documents,this paper summarizes the major risk factors that impact the urban rail transit PPP projects,analyzes the risk path at different stages by using the system dynamics,and finally obtains the causal relationship feedback chart of risk factors and determines the impact mechanism of different risk factors on PPP project.It further puts forward some countermeasures.

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 PPP 风险因素 系统动力学模型 

分 类 号：F530.7[经济管理—产业经济]