天津地区地面沉降趋势预测模型模拟  

Research on prediction model of land subsidence in Tianjin area

作　　者：周志华[1] 杨丽萍[1] 肖雪[2] ZHOU Zhi-hua;YANG Li-ping;XIAO Xue(Tianjin Water Conservancy Science Research Institute,Tianjin 300061,China;Yongding River Management office of Tianjin City,Tianjin 300453,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市水利科学研究院,天津300061 [2]天津市永定河管理处,天津300453

出　　处：《南水北调与水利科技》2017年第A02期122-127,共6页South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology

摘　　要：由于历史上长期水资源短缺,天津市被迫过量开采地下水,加上构造沉降、油气资源开发、城市建设等一系列内因和外因,引发了地面沉降等环境地质灾害,目前境内沉降面积已达8000km2。从分析天津地区地面沉降现状出发,剖析了造成沉降的主要因素,分别采用灰色-马尔柯夫法、地下水开采相关性分析法、地下水开采与建筑荷载相关性分析法进行地面沉降模拟。通过对比分析总体平均误差率,认为地下水开采与建筑荷载相关性模型模拟的累计地面沉降量效果较好,在此基础上利用该方法对中心城区和塘沽、汉沽、大港2025年的地面沉降量进行了模拟预测。Because of the long-term shortage of water resources,Tianjin was forced to excessive exploitation of groundwater,coupled with a series of internal and external causes,including tectonic subsidence,oil and gas resources exploitation,urban construction and so on,caused the ground subsidence and other environmental geological disasters.At present,the subsidence area has reached 8000km 2.Based on the analysis of the current situation of land in Tianjin,this paper analyzed the main factors causing subsidence,used Grey Markov method,correlation analysis of groundwater exploitation method,correlation analysis of groundwater exploitation and building load for ground subsidence prediction.The result showed that the simulation effect of groundwater exploitation and building load correlation analysis is better by comparing the average error rate.On this basis,the method was used to simulate the ground subsidence of the central city,Tanggu,Hangu and Dagang in 2025.

关 键 词：地面沉降 灰色-马尔柯夫 相关性分析 建筑荷载 趋势预测 

分 类 号：P954[天文地球—自然地理学]