美国LNG出口潜力及对世界天然气市场影响  

LNG Export Potential of U.S. and Its Effects on World's Natural Gas Market

作　　者：梁坤[1] 张国生[1] 孟昊 赵丽华[1] 毕海滨[1] 袁自学[1] 郑婧 周明庆 LIANG Kun;ZHANG Guosheng;MENG Hao;ZHAO Lihua;BI Haibin;YUAN Zixue;ZHENG Jing;ZHOU Mingqing

机构地区：[1]中国石油勘探开发研究院,北京100083

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2018年第4期1-3,8,81,共5页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

摘　　要：受益于页岩气革命,美国有望成为天然气净出口国。美国天然气出口潜力、市场竞争力将直接影响世界天然气的供需格局。为此,通过系统分析认为:北美地区天然气净出口量会大幅提高;亚太地区将是北美LNG中远期重要市场;北美天然气进入欧洲市场引发中亚—俄罗斯、卡塔尔天然气向东流,亚太地区成为各方争夺的焦点。基于上述判断,建议重新审视长输管线建设和LNG终端布局,规避大规模长输管线存在的巨大经济风险;加快推进中国天然气基准价格的形成;借助世界天然气供需宽松格局,鼓励天然气消费,推动能源结构转型升级。The U.S.is on the track to become a net gas ex-porter thanks to the shale gas revolution.The natural gas ex-port potential and market competitiveness of U.S.will directly influence the world's natural gas supply and demand pattern.According to system analysis,it is advocated the net export volume of natural gas in North America will increase greatly,the Asia-Pacific Region will be an important market for the LNG in North America in medium and long term,and the ac-cess of the natural gas in North America to European market will cause eastward flow of gas from Central Asia,Russia and Qatar and the Asia-Pacific Region will become the focus of all parties.Based on the judgment above,it is suggested that the construction of long-distance pipeline and the distri-bution of LNG terminal should be re-examined to avoid the huge economic risks of large-scale long-distance pipelines,the formation of China's natural gas benchmark price should be accelerated and the world's relaxed natural gas supply and demand pattern should be taken advantage of to encour-age natural gas consumption and promote the transformation and upgrading of the energy structure.

关 键 词：美国 运输经济性 天然气市场 天然气出口 天然气价格 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F746.12