考虑风电不确定性的风火打捆直流外送系统的日前机组组合模型  

Day-ahead Unit Commitment Models Considering Uncertainties in Wind Power for Wind Power Bundled with Thermal Power Transmitted by DC

作　　者：李文莉 付聪聪 张海波[1] LI Wenli;FU Congcong;ZHANG Haibo(State Key Laboratory for Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Sources(North China Electric Power University),Beijing 102206,China;Tianfu New Area Power Supply Company,State Grid Sichuan Electric Power Company,Chengdu 610100,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学新能源电力系统国家重点实验室,北京102206 [2]国网四川省电力公司天府新区供电公司,成都610100

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2018年第8期38-43,共6页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51777069);国家电网公司科技资助项目(5230HQ16000A)

摘　　要：大规模风电并网给电力系统的优化运行带来新的挑战。根据风电场历史数据,分别采用区间预测和场景分析两种方法对未来的风电功率进行不确定描述,建立了风电预测信息不同描述方式下的考虑直流功率调整约束的日前机组组合模型。算例分析表明,所采用的风电预测方法能够准确地反映真实的风电功率信息,建立的机组组合模型能够针对不同的预测信息做出优化决策。最后对单位弃风成本及直流功率单位调节成本对优化结果的影响进行分析比较,为风火打捆直流外送系统日前计划的制定提供建议。A large-scale integration of wind power brings new challenges to the optimal operation of power system.In this paper,according to the historical data of wind farms,two methods of interval prediction and scenario analysis are used to describe uncertainties in wind power output in the future.In different description modes of wind power prediction information,the corresponding day-ahead unit commitment models considering DC power adjustment constraints are established.The analyses of numerical examples show that the proposed wind power prediction method can accurately reflect the real information of wind power to a large extent,and the optimized decisions can be obtained using the established unit commitment models based on different prediction information.In the end,the influences of unit cost of wind power curtailment and unit cost of DC power regulation on the optimization result are analyzed and compared,which offer suggestions for the formulation of the day-ahead plan for the wind power bundled with thermal power transmitted by DC.

关 键 词：风电功率预测 不确定性 区间估计 场景分析 机组组合 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]