基于经济社会关联视角的福建省公路货运经济运行特点分析  

Economic Operation Characteristics of Highway Freight Transportation Industry in Fujian Province from Perspective of Economic and Social Connection

作　　者：林成功[1] 梁鸿旭[1] 傅昭南[1] 张善金[2] LIN Cheng-gong;LIANG Hong-xu;FU Zhao-nan;ZHANG Shan-jin(China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;Fujian Provincial Communications Planning Office,Fuzhou 350001,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029 [2]福建省交通规划办公室,福建福州350001

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2018年第3期49-56,共8页Transport Research

摘　　要：经济新常态下,为客观判断和准确把握福建省公路货物运输行业经济运行态势,建立关联性分析、同步性分析和主成分分析等量化分析模型,并与定性分析相结合,深刻剖析了福建省公路货运行业在公路货运与经济社会发展的匹配、货类结构与产业结构的关系以及省内地市运输生产空间分布规律等方面的经济运行特点。通过分析,得出了福建省公路货运与经济发展总体态势保持一致、货类结构相对稳定且与产业结构相吻合以及分地市公路货运生产与经济社会发展之间并没有表现出严格的一致性的结论。最后,结合国家调整运输结构的政策导向以及福建省经济社会发展的客观实际,预测未来一段时间福建省公路货运将保持增长但增速将逐步回落趋稳。Under the new normal economy,in order to objectively judge and accurately grasp the economic operation trend of highway freight transportation industry in Fujian Province,quantitative analysis models such as correlation analysis,synchronization analysis,and principal component analysis models were established,the economic operation characteristics of the highway freight transportation industry,such as the matching of highway freight transportation and economic-social development,the relationship between cargo structure and industrial structure,and the spatial distribution characteristics of transportation production within the cities in Fujian Province were deeply analyzed combined with qualitative analysis.According to the analysis results,it reveals that the highway freight transportation in Fujian Province is consistent with the general trend of economic development,the cargo structure is relatively stable and consistent with the industrial structure.And there is no strict consistency between the highway freight transportation in different cities and economic-social development.At the end,combined with the policy orientation of adjusting transportation structure and the objective reality of economic and social development in Fujian Province,it is predicted that highway freight will continue to grow in Fujian Province in the future,but the growth rate will gradually decrease and stabilize.

关 键 词：公路货运 量化分析 货类结构 空间分布规律 走势预判 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]