产业创新升级视角下“中等收入陷阱”的跨越  

The Crossing Path of “Middle Income Trap”from the Perspective of Industrial Innovation and Upgrading

作　　者：程文[1] 张建华[2] CHENG Wen;ZHANG Jian-hua

机构地区：[1]湖北大学商学院 [2]华中科技大学经济学院

出　　处：《产经评论》2018年第4期62-71,共10页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“新常态下‘中等收人陷阱’的定量识别、风险预警与对策研究”(项目编号:16CJL015,项目主持人:程文)。

摘　　要：技术创新能力不足引起的产业升级断档是"中等收入陷阱"形成的一个重要机理。产业创新升级的动力既有"需求拉动"因素,也有"技术推动"因素,而现有一些研究过于偏重其中某一个因素或割裂两者关联性。基于现有研究不足,给出存在多重均衡的产业创新升级模型,探讨"中等收入陷阱"的形成机理,分析"贫困陷阱"、"中等收入陷阱"和"高收入陷阱"的成因。在经济发展的不同阶段,各个增长陷阱形成的机理不同。"中等收入陷阱"的出现是外因和内因的共同作用:随着中等收入国家与发达国家之间技术差距的逐渐缩小,中等收入国家的后发优势逐渐丧失。如果此时该国经济无法顺利转型为创新驱动,则其产业升级便会出现断档,以至于陷入"中等收入陷阱"。中等收入国家应该通过技术推动和需求拉动,推进技术创新与产业升级,寻求"中等收入陷阱"的解决之道。结果显示,对于不同行业而言,需求推动和技术拉动所起到的作用迥然不同:行业的技术密集程度越高,"需求拉动"因素对产业创新升级的影响越大;行业的技术密集程度越低,"技术推动"因素对产业创新升级的影响越大。跨越"中等收入陷阱"需有效地制定产业政策,重视自主创新能力不足与产业升级断档的问题。The breaking-down of industry upgrading caused by insufficient technological innovation is an important mechanism for the formation of“middle income trap”.The impetus for the industrial innovation and upgrading includes“demand pull”and“technology push”factors.But some of the existing studies overemphasize one of the factors or split the relationship between them.This paper constructs an economic growth model contained“poverty trap”,“middle income trap”and“high income trap”.And it finds the mechanism of trap formation is different in the various stages of economic development.The emergence of the middle income trapT,is because of the external and internal factors:with the gradual narrowing of the technical gap between the middle income countries and the developed countries,the backwardness advantage of the middle income countries is gradually lost.If the development model can not smooth transits to innovation driven,industrial upgrading will be interrupted,and middle income trapM will emerge.The solution is the middle income countries should pay attention to demand and technology driven,to promote technological innovation and industrial upgrading.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper uses the Chinese industry data in 1998-2013,combined with the inequality decomposition based on regression method,to explore the various contribution rates of factors of promoting innovation and upgrading industry.This paper points out that for different industries,demand driven and technology driven play different role:the higher the level of technology intensity,the greater demand pullv factors impacting on industrial upgrading;the lower the level of technology intensity,the greater“technology push”factors impacting on industrial upgrading.This discovery is effective for the industrial policy making,to achieve the goal of“supply side reform”,and cross the‘‘middle income trap”?

关 键 词：中等收入陷阱 产业创新升级模型 产业升级 断档 陷阱跨越方法 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学]