中国海洋渔业转型成效与时空差异分析  

Assessment of Marine Fishery Transformation in China and Spatial-temporal Differences

作　　者：孙康 李丽丹 SUN Kang;LI Li-dan

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心

出　　处：《产经评论》2018年第4期72-83,共12页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：教育部省部共建人文社会科学重点研究基地项目"我国渔业经济可持续发展研究--以辽东湾为例"(项目编号:13JJD790042;负责人:孙康);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目"海水养殖视角下我省海洋渔业经济转型对策研究"(项目编号L16BJY041;负责人:孙康)

摘　　要：我国海洋渔业结构性矛盾突出。供给侧结构性改革条件下,海洋渔业转型升级是对传统海洋渔业的扬弃,也是新发展时期海洋渔业产业系统内部结构的调整。基于海洋渔业转型的内涵,从五个维度构建海洋渔业转型成效指标体系,运用AHP和变异系数组合赋权综合评价法,测度2001-2014年中国海洋渔业转型成效,利用Kernel密度估计及ARCGIS技术对结果进行时空差异分析,结果表明:(1)总体层面上,中国海洋渔业转型成效呈提升态势,地区差异依然存在但逐渐缩小;(2)分维度层面上,海洋渔业转型升级中,海洋渔业转型度、可持续发展度、科技支持度均呈良好发展态势;渔民转产转业度呈反向变化趋势,表明海洋渔业转型对渔民转产转业存在"挤出效应"。中国海洋渔业要实现多方面、全方位的转型升级目标,可选择积极推动海洋牧场建设、继续引导渔业第一产业向二、三产业转移的路径。In recent years,the structural contradiction of marine fishery in China is outstanding.Under the condition of the structural reform of the supply side,the transformation and upgrading of the marine fishery is the abandonment of the traditional marine fishery,and also the adjustment of the internal structure of the marine fishery industry system during the new development period.Based on the connotation of marine fishery transformation,the index system to measure the effect of China^marine fishery transformation is established including five dimensions.The comprehensive evaluation method of combining AHP and variation coefficient method is used to measure and study the effect of marine fishery transformation in China from 2001 to 2014.Then,kernel density estimation model and ARCGIS spatial analysis technology are adopted to analyze temporal and spatial pattern evolution of the results,so as to reveal the inner change rules.The conclusions can be drawn as follows:(1)at the national level,the effectiveness of China^marine fishery transformation presents the status of ascension,an overall gap still exists,but the gap in transformation of marine fishery is gradually narrowed.(2)As viewed from the dimension,marine fishery transformation maintains a steady improvement in marine fishery transformation degrees,sustainable development degree,Science and technology support degrees;the fishermen employment degrees show a reverse spatial trend,it is proven that the transformation has a“squeezing out effect”on marine fishermen employment.Promoting the construction of marine pasture actively can be used as an effective way to achieve the transformation and upgrading of marine fisheries in many aspects.The transformation of the marine fishery needs to continue to transfer the first fishery industry to the second and third industry in the future.

关 键 词：中国海洋渔业 转型升级 分维度转型成效 挤出效应 

分 类 号：F326.4[经济管理—产业经济]