客源国经济距离与入境旅游规模--来自中国西北五省的经验证据  

Does Economic Distance of Tourist Source Country Promote Inbound Tourism Scale?——Based on Empirical Evidence from Five Provinces in Northwest China

作　　者：王聪[1] 孔闪闪[2] 魏宝祥[2] WANG Cong;KONG Shan-shan;WEI Bao-xiang

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院 [2]西北师范大学旅游学院

出　　处：《产经评论》2018年第4期99-112,共14页Industrial Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“对华‘双反’调查的成因和‘非市场经济地位’的影响”(项目编号:71741007,项目负责人:林桂军)。

摘　　要："一带一路"倡议将西北五省定位为深化与中亚、南亚、西亚国家的往来通道,基于此,研究如何优化西北五省入境旅游客源国结构具有较为重要的现实意义。使用2003-2013年西北五省来自各国的入境旅游人数数据,运用亲景度-竞争态分析、最优投资组合理论、引力模型分析西北五省入境旅游客源国构成及其最优组合,并分析客源国经济距离对西北五省入境旅游规模的影响。研究发现:西北五省主要的入境旅游客源国以及各省最优入境旅游客源国组合中均缺少来自中亚、西亚和南亚的国家,西北五省目前的客源国结构与"一带一路"倡议中关于西北五省的定位并不完全吻合;入境旅游客源国的经济距离,即客源国与周边国家经济联系的困难程度,对西北五省的入境旅游规模具有显著降低作用。为优化西北五省入境旅游客源国结构,应加强西北五省与"一带一路"国家的基础设施互联互通。The Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road makes the five prov-inces in the Northwest China a bridge to enhance the communication between China and countries in Middle A-sia,South Asia and West Asia,under this background,it is of great practical significanee to study how to opti-mize the structure of inbound tourist source countries in the five northwester provinces.Based on the.touristarrivals to the five provinces from abroad,applied familiarity with scenic destination and competition state,op-timal portfolio theory,Gravity Model and Mediator effect model,this article analyzes the major sources of in-bound tourists and the optimal portfolio and its influential factors.Research finds that both the major sources olinbound tourists and the optimal portfolio of inbound tourists sources are short of countries in Middle Asia,South Asia and West Asia,that the economic distance,in another word,the convenience and strength of economic communication between tourists sources and their neighbors is playing important role in the scale of in-bound tourism in the five provinces;The number of the level of economic development and population sourcecountry is the main intermediary variable of economic distance that influence the number of inbound tourism,namely economic distance completely through the influence of the level of economic development and touristsource country population,and thus affect the number of inbound tourism.The conclusion of this paper pro-vides empirical evidence for optimizing the structure of the tourist source country of the inbound tourism in thefive provinces of Northwest China,and strengthening infrastructure interoperability between northwest fiveprovinces and Belt and Road Initiative countries.

关 键 词：中国西北五省 入境旅游 客源国经济距离 一带一路 亲景度-竞争态 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理] F752.8[经济管理—产业经济]