中国木材贸易非均衡度问题及其动态性研究  

Chinese Timber Trade: Non-equilibrium Problem and Study on Dynamics

作　　者：曹容宁 薛艳 CAO Rong-ning;XUE Yan(School of Business,Jiangsu University of Technology,Changzhou 213001,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏理工学院商学院,江苏常州213001

出　　处：《江苏理工学院学报》2018年第3期45-51,共7页Journal of Jiangsu University of Technology

基　　金：科技部质检行业公益项目"进口大宗农林产品技术性贸易措施研究"(2007GYJ044)

摘　　要：根据中国大陆木材贸易状况,利用Lambert指数聚合方程对其贸易状况进行分析,在此基础上,测算木材供需的非均衡度,并对未来一段时期木材供需情况进行预测。研究表明,人均可支配收入对木材需求影响最大,人均国民生产总值次之,价格影响最小;价格对木材供给影响最大,其次是木材产量和进口量,出口量影响最小。因此,人均可支配收入和人均国民生产总值是影响木材需求的重要因素,从它们的变化可以较好地判断市场需求。而价格、木材产量和进口量是影响木材供给的重要因素,从它们的变化可以较好地判断市场供给。此外,从1996—2013年,中国木材贸易市场供需非均衡状态呈现明显的周期性波动,集中反映了市场中的非理性行为。从描述木材市场有效程度的短边规则角度看,市场对木材需求和供给变化缺乏灵敏性是出现周期性波动的重要原因。通过预测把握市场对于供需双方都很重要。According to the current situation of Chinese timber market,this paper analyzes the non-equilibrium of total timber supply and demand by using Lambert model,and forecasts the supply and demand of timber for a period of time in the future.The results show that the per capita disposable income has the greatest impact on timber demand,followed by the per capita GDP.The price has the minimal impact;the price has the greatest impact on timber supply,followed by timber production and import while the export has the minimal impact.Therefore,the per capita disposable income and per capita GDP are important factors to affect the demand of timber,and their changes can better determine market demand.And the price,yield and quantity of the imported timber are important factors to affect the supply of timber,and their changes can better judge the market supply.In addition,Chinese timber market supply and demand non-equilibrium presents obvious fluctuations from year 1996 to 2013.Chinese timber market does not adequately conform to the short side rule and market is not sensitive enough to the change in demand and supply which cause the periodic fluctuations.It is important for the supply and demand sides to understand market through forecasting.

关 键 词：木材贸易市场 Lambert指数聚合方程 周期性波动 短边规则 非均衡度 动态性研究 

分 类 号：F740[经济管理—国际贸易]