城乡居民基本养老保险内部收益率的测算与分析  

Estimation and Analysis of Internal Rate of Return of Basic Endowment Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents

作　　者：王翠琴 王雅 薛惠元[2] WANG Cuiqin;WANG Ya;XUE Huiyuan

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学文法学院/农村社会建设与管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉大学政治与公共管理学院/社会保障研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第5期119-128,166,共11页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"新型农村社会养老保险风险识别与防范研究"(12CGL078)

摘　　要：通过构建精算模型,对城乡居民基本养老保险内部收益率进行测算发现:城乡居保内部收益率在8.23%~79.50%之间;考虑养老金调整因素后的内部收益率远高于未考虑的情况;内部收益率与缴费档次呈负相关;未考虑养老金调整因素的内部收益率随着缴费年限的提高先下降后上升,考虑养老金调整因素后,内部收益率与缴费年限呈负相关;在缴费档次和缴费年限相同的情况下,居民参保越晚,其内部收益率越大。建议:科学测算并对外公布城乡居保内部收益率;建立城乡居保基础养老金正常调整机制;实行差别化补贴,鼓励多缴多得;完善"长缴多得"的激励机制;适时将城乡居保改为强制参保。By establishing actuarial model to estimate the internal rate of return of basic endowment insurance for urban and rural residents,this paper finds that the internal rate fluctuates between 8.23%and 79.50%;the internal rate of return with pension adjustment considered is remarkably higher than that unconsidered;the internal rate of return is negatively correlated with the payment grade;the internal rate of return,without regard to pension adjustment,is expected to decrease firstly yet then increase as the payment period extends,while it is negatively correlated with the payment period after taking pension adjustment into account;under the same circumstance of payment grade and payment period,the later the residents are insured,the greater the internal rate of return is.It is suggested that the internal rate of return be scientifically estimated and frankly published;the normal adjustment mechanism of basic pension for urban and rural residents should be established;the policy of differentiated subsidies and the policy of more return for more payment should be implemented;the incentive mechanism of more return from longer payment period should be improved;the timely compulsory insurance should be considered.

关 键 词：城乡居民 养老保险 内部收益率 敏感性分析 精算模型 

分 类 号：F840.612[经济管理—保险]