基于GIS的潜势度地质灾害预警预报模型研究——以浙江省温州市为例  

Potential Degree Index Model of Early Warning System for Geological Hazards:A Case Study of Wenzhou in Zhejiang Province

作　　者：赵晓东 杲旭日 张泰丽[2] 周明浪 徐登财 ZHAO Xiao-dong;GAO Xu-ri;ZHANG Tai-li;ZHOU Ming-lang;XU Deng-cai(China-Japan Research Center for Geo-environmental Science,Dalian University,Dalian 116622;Nanjing Center,China Geological Survey,Nanjing 210016;Center of Geo-environmental Monitoring,Wenzhou Bureau of National Land and Resources,Wenzhou 325027,China)

机构地区：[1]大连大学中日地层环境科学研究中心,辽宁大连116622 [2]中国地质调查局南京地质调查中心,江苏南京210016 [3]温州市国土资源局地质环境监测站,浙江温州325027

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2018年第5期1-6,共6页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51374046);浙江飞云江流域地质灾害调查项目(DD20160282)

摘　　要：受台风和暴雨的影响,温州市地质灾害频发,是浙江省地质灾害最严重的地区。该文以温州市为例,提出基于GIS的潜势度地质灾害预警预报模型。该模型输入降雨因素和非降雨因素两大类变量。其中,非降雨因素采用潜势度描述点状预警单元发生地质灾害的潜在能力,根据地形、地貌和地质等非降雨因素的重要程度归结为无量纲的潜势度;降雨因素根据灾害和地域的不同,通过降雨阈值归结为无量纲的降雨等级。两类输入变量经过预警判据矩阵输出相应的预警级别,插值后形成由点状到面状的预警结果。系统预警预报模型采用潜势度模型,使用ArcObjects技术在ArcGIS地理信息系统中集成开发,提供预警计算结果表格、实时预警地图和预警短信等功能,大大提高了地质灾害预警和预报的精度,为地质灾害防灾工作提供了实时、可靠和科学的技术支持。Wenzhou is the most serious geological hazard area in Zhejiang Province,with a large area of mountain,a frequent occurrence of geological hazards due to typhoons and rainstorms.In this paper,Wenzhou was taken as a case study for the potential degree index(PDI)model of the early warning system for geological hazards.The early warning model of geological hazards have two major categories of variables:the rainfall factors and the non-rainfall factors.The non-rainfall factors used the PDI to describe the potential probability in a point-shaped warning unit and were transformed to non-dimensional form of PDIs based on the terrain,geomorphology and geology of landslide or debris flow hazards.The rainfall factors applied rainfall thresholds to generate non-dimensional degree of rainfall.Finally,the above variables were inputted into a criterion matrix to generate the degree of early warning,and to give area-shaped warning results after interpolation.Applying the PDI model proposed in the pap ery GIS-based early warning system implemented by ArcObjects technique has been established to achieve a real-time prediction with susceptibility map,excel computation data and warning messages obtained as the output to help decision making in areas prone to geological hazards.

关 键 词：地质灾害 预警 潜势度 预警单元 GIS 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学] P208