1965-2014年华北地区极端气候事件与农业气象灾害时空格局研究  

Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Extreme Climate Events and Agrometeorological Disasters in North China from 1965 to 2014

作　　者：柏会子 肖登攀[1] 刘剑锋[1] 王华玲 张贺 栗志强[1] BAI Hui-zi;XIAO Deng-pan;LIU Jian-feng;WANG Hua-ling;ZHANG He;Zhi-qiang(Hebei Engineering Research Center for Geographic Information Application,Institute of Geographical Sciences, Hebei Academy of Sciences,Shijiazhuang 050011;Institute of Economic Crop Research,Shiyan Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Shiyan 442000;Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省科学院地理科学研究所/河北省地理信息开发应用工程技术研究中心,河北石家庄050011 [2]十堰市农科院经济作物研究所,湖北十堰442000 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2018年第5期99-105,共7页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：十三五国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFD0300908);河北省科学院人才项目(2017G04);国家自然科学基金项目(41401104)

摘　　要：气候变暖背景下,极端气候事件频发是诱发农业气象灾害的主要原因。该文采用华北地区82个国家级气象站的逐日气象数据和35个农业气象站的冬小麦气象灾害记录,基于表征不同极端气候事件的相关指数分析了1965-2014年华北地区极端气候事件和1981-2009年农业气象灾害事件的时空分布特征及两者间的相关性。研究结果表明:表征研究区极端高温事件的指数均呈上升趋势,而表征极端低温事件的指数均呈下降趋势;极端降水指数在过去50年间均无显著变化,但年际变化幅度较大。冬小麦低温灾害事件显著减少,干旱灾害事件显著增加,冬小麦农业气象灾害发生频次与极端气候指数存在一定的相关性,其中,低温灾害发生频次与霜日日数呈极显著正相关(P<0.01),连阴雨灾害发生频次与持续湿润指数具有显著正相关性(P<0.05)。农业气象灾害事件的时空分布与其相关的极端气候事件时空分布基本一致:山东省和河南省的持续干燥指数显著增加,该地区冬小麦干旱灾害发生频次也显著增加;河南省部分地区持续湿润指数有增加趋势,而冬小麦连阴雨灾害也主要集中在该地区。Under the background of climate warming,the frequent occurrence of extreme climate events is the main cause of agrometeorological disasters.By using the daily meteorological data of 82 national meteorological stations and agrometeorological disasters records of 35 agrometeorological stations in North China,based on the related index of different extreme climate events,this study analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of extreme climate events from 1965 to 2014 and agrometeorological disasters over the past three decades from 1981 to 2009,and further evaluated the correlation between them.The results indicated that the indexes that characterize extreme high temperature showed upward trends,but the indexes that characterize extreme low temperature presented downward trends.The extreme precipitation index had not changed significantly over the past five decades,but the interannual variation was larger.From 1981 to 2009,the low temperature disasters decreased significantly,and the drought increased significantly for winter wheat.The correlation existed between agrometeorological disasters and extreme climate events.The frequency of low temperature disasters for winter wheat was positively associated with frost day(P<0.01).There was a significant positive correlation between frequency of continuous rain disasters for winter wheat and consecutive wet days(P<0.05).The temporal and spatial distribution of agrometeorological disasters was basically consistent with the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme climate events.Consecutive dry days in Shandong and Henan increased obviously,and there was also the most significant increase in drought for winter wheat in this region.In some area of Henan,consecutive wet days showed an upward trend,and continuous rain disasters for winter wheat were mainly concentrated in this region.

关 键 词：极端气候 农业灾害 时空分布 华北地区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P429