新能源不确定功率预测方法综述  

Survey of Uncertainty Power Prediction Technique in New Energy

作　　者：吴晨媛 吕干云[1] 吴启宇 蒋小伟[1] WU Chen-yuan;LV Gan-yun;WU Qi-yu;JIANG Xiao-wei(School of Electric Power Engineering,Nanjing Institute of Technology,Nanjing 2111 67,China)

机构地区：[1]南京工程学院电力工程学院,江苏南京211167

出　　处：《电工电气》2018年第9期1-6,共6页Electrotechnics Electric

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51577086);电力传输与功率变换控制教育部重点实验室开放课题(2016AA02)

摘　　要：新能源的不确定性功率预测研究能在传统预测模型基础上提高其预测精度并提供一定的概率信息和预测区间。从误差概率密度预测、区间预测两个方面对新能源功率预测的不确定性进行分析,总结归纳了各种不同的模型及其优缺点和评价指标,并探讨了新能源不确定功率预测存在的问题及今后需要深入研究的方向。Uncertainty power prediction for the new energy prediction study,based on the traditional prediction model,could improve its prediction accuracy and provide a certain probability information and prediction interval.This paper analyzed the uncertainty of new energy power prediction,from the aspects of error probability density prediction and interval prediction,and summarized various models and their advantages,disadvantages and evaluation indexes.Finally,this paper discussed the problem of uncertainty prediction for the new energy power and directions for further research in the future.

关 键 词：新能源功率预测 不确定性 误差概率密度预测 区间预测 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]