地方财政支持新型城镇化的资金需求预测与融资渠道转换  

Fund Demand Forecast and Financing Channel Transformation of Local Finance Support for New Urbanization

作　　者：张宗军 ZHANG Zong-jun(Lanzhou University of Finance and Economic,Lanzhou Gansu 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学甘肃省金融协同创新中心,兰州730020

出　　处：《西北人口》2018年第5期82-89,共8页Northwest Population Journal

基　　金：兰州财经大学丝绸之路研究院重点项目(JYYZ201508);甘肃省科技金融协同创新团队阶段性成果

摘　　要：在新型城镇化战略要求下,地方财政存在着巨大的资金缺口,为保证预测的准确性,将城镇化过程中的私人投资和公共投资相区分;将与新型城镇化密切相关的支出项目进行剥离;将部分指标的增长率进行动态调整。通过这三方面的改进,测算出2016~2025年10年期间,全国将新增城镇人口1.7417亿,人均新增地方财政成本28543元;十年期间新型城镇化将拉动地方财政公共服务支出132.27万亿、财政固定资产投资116.39万亿。在"土地财政"不可持续、"平台融资"被隔离、地方政府财权与事权不匹配的三重约束下,为弥补新型城镇化的资金缺口,需要转换融资渠道,大力推动和完善地方政府债券。In the new urbanization strategy,local finance has a huge funding gap.The paper distinguishes public investment from private investment,peels off the financial expenditure projects closely related to new urbanization,adjusts the growth rate of some indicators dynamically.Through these improvement the paper figured out that the country will add 174 million 170 thousand new urban population during the calculated 2016~2025 10 years.The new fiscal public expenditure is 28543 yuan per capita.The ten years of new urbanization will drive the local fiscal public services expenditure about 116 trillion and the financial fixed assets investment about 132 trillion.Under the three constraints of“land finance”is not sustainable,“platform financing”is isolated,and local governments’financial rights and powers do not match,in order to make up for the new urbanization gap,we need to transform financing channels,and promote and improve local government bonds in a large number.

关 键 词：新型城镇化 地方财政 资金需求 地方政府债券 

分 类 号：F812.7[经济管理—财政学]