基于线性退化轨道的区间型建模分析及应用  

Analysis and Application of Interval Modeling for Linear Degradation Path

作　　者：管强 汤银才[2] GUAN Qiang;TANG Yincai(Institute of information Engineering, Sanming University, Sanming, 365004, China;School of Statistics, East China Normal University, Shanghai, 200062, China)

机构地区：[1]三明学院信息工程学院,三明365004 [2]华东师范大学统计学院,上海200062

出　　处：《应用概率统计》2018年第4期427-440,共14页Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(批准号:11401341);国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:11271136;81530086);高等学校学科创新引智计划(批准号:B14019);福建省自然科学基金项目(批准号:2015J05014;2016J01681);2015福建省高校杰出青年科研人才培育计划;2016福建省高校新世纪优秀人才项目(批准号:闽教科:[2016] 23号);福建省科技厅项目(批准号:2017N0029);福建省教育厅项目(批准号:JK2014046);工业大数据分析及应用福建省高校重点实验室和数字福建工业能源大数据研究所资助

摘　　要：目前在退化试验中,产品失效一般定义为其性能退化至低于或高于一个指定临界值(单点型退化),尽管这种定义简单实用,但却不尽合理,不能完全描述产品退化失效问题.本文改进单点型退化模型,提出区间型退化模型,并讨论了退化轨道是线性时的区间退化模型问题,获得了各种线性区间退化寿命分布.本文利用数值积分和蒙特卡罗法模拟分析对比区间退化模型和单点退化模型的寿命分布,揭示区间退化和单点退化的关系.最后通过实例分析体现区间退化在实际中更为合理有效.At present,in degradation tests,product failure is generally dened as degradation of per-formance below or above a specied critical value(that is called single point degradation).Although thisdenition is simple and practical,it is not reasonable enough and degradation failure of the product cannot be completely described.In this paper,a single point degradation model is improved,and an intervaldegeneration model is proposed.We discuss the interval degradation model when the degradation path isliner,and obtain life distribution functions for all kinds of linear interval degradation model.Numericalintegration and Monte Carlo simulation methods are used to analyze and compare the life distribution ofthe interval degradation model and the single point degradation model,and the relationship between theinterval degradation and the single point degradation is revealed.Finally,an real data example is analysisto show that interval degradation is more reasonable and eective in practice.

关 键 词：区间型退化 退化试验 寿命分布 

分 类 号：O213.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]