港口锚地容量可靠性计算方法与冗余设计  

Reliability computation method and redundancy design of port anchorage capacity

作　　者：郭子坚[1] 薛天寒 王文渊[1] 彭云[1] GUO Zijian;XUE Tianhan;WANG Wenyuan;PENG Yun(School of Hydraulic Engineering,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学水利工程学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《大连理工大学学报》2018年第5期494-499,共6页Journal of Dalian University of Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51779037);辽宁省自然科学基金资助项目(201602168);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(DUT17JC29)

摘　　要：针对当前港口锚地普遍发生的实用容量与设计容量存在一定差距的现象,运用系统可靠性理论,基于排队论和蒙特卡罗模拟的方法,对锚地实用容量进行概率评价,进而提出锚地容量可靠性的定义和计算方法;为提高锚地容量可靠性,提出对锚地容量进行冗余设计,并建立系统可靠性最大和锚位冗余数最小的双目标优化模型.以北方某集装箱港区为算例,求解得出不同保证率下帕累托最优解集.计算结果表明:所建立的优化模型能够有效提高锚地容量的可靠性,且不同保证率、不同冗余数对可靠性产生的影响不同,可为不同港口的锚位冗余设计提供有益参考.Faced with the problem that gap between practical capacity and designed capacity of port anchorage widely exists,by using the system reliability theory,the probability assessment of practical capacity is analyzed based on queuing theory and Monte Carlo method,and the reliability definition and computation method of port anchorage are proposed.With the maximum reliability and minimum redundancy number set as two objective functions,the double objective optimization model is established to improve the reliability of port anchorage capacity calculation by redundancy design.A container terminal in northern China is taken as calculation example,and Pareto optimum sets under different guaranteed rates are obtained.Calculation results indicate that optimization model put forward can improve the reliability of port anchorage capacity effectively,and the influences on reliability of different redundancy numbers and different guaranteed rates are different,which can provide a useful reference to the redundancy design of anchorage for different ports.

关 键 词：港口工程 港口锚地 可靠性 实用容量 保证率 冗余设计 

分 类 号：U651.3[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]