市场化、重工业化与“新东北现象”——基于东北37个地级市1989—2012年面板数据的分析  

Marketization,Heavy Industrialization and New Phenomenon of Northeast China——An Analysis Based on 37 Prefectural Panel Data of Northeast China

作　　者：王智勇[1] WANG Zhiyong(Institute of Population and Labor Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100028,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所,北京100028

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2018年第5期90-102,127,128,共15页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急管理项目"区域规划实施评估的理论方法;机制与案例研究"(71641034);中国社会科学院创新工程项目"释放城镇化改革红利的领域与对策研究"(RKSCX2017014)

摘　　要："新东北现象"反映了东北经济发展过程中出现的持久性结构问题,突出表现为市场化程度低、重工业主导的产业结构和行政主导的城镇化,其结果是经济增长的脆弱性高。本文基于东北37个地级市1989—2012年面板数据,采用系统GMM回归分析方法,得出结论:东北地区经济增长长期依赖第二产业的相对扩张和增长,而第一和第三产业则相对萎缩;振兴东北系列专项政策的实施进一步强化了东北工业化的持续扩张,使经济增长更加依赖第二产业,增加了经济增长的脆弱性。东北重工业导向的产业发展战略阻碍了城镇化,城镇化推动经济增长的作用有限,沿海地区的区位优势未能充分发挥。市场化和对外开放是促进经济增长的有效机制,然而东北地区市场化程度低,难以根本改变产业结构。为了促进东北经济的发展,应充分发挥东北资源丰富的特点大力发展加工制造业,以新技术和智能制造业促进产业结构优化,并通过加强城市基础设施建设充分发挥中心城市的辐射作用。此外,还应大力发展外向型经济,融入国际市场,推动市场机制转变。New phenomenon of Northeast China reflected the persistent structural problem during the northeastern China’s economic development,with characteristics of a low level of marketization,a heavy industry oriented structure and an administration oriented urbanization.Based on 37 prefectural panel data on northeast area from 1989 to 2012 and system GMM analysis,we concluded that the heavy industry oriented development strategy did have a positive effect on economic growth,but with a diminishing rate.Secondary industry expanded quickly,while tertiary and primary industries grew slowly due to the Northeast Revival Strategy.Urbanization promoted economic growth,but with a rather weak effect.Central cities did not function as area centrals so as radiate surrounding counties.Structural problems also include high agricultural ratio,which hampers urbanization growth.Although marketization promoted economic growth effectively,it cannot change industrial structure.In terms of promoting regional economy,measures of reindustrialization and urbanization should be taken in Northeast China,in order to make industrial system reasonable and urbanization solid.Moreover,measures should also be taken to develop export oriented economy,entering international market and promoting market mechanism formation so as to stimulate economic energy and attain synchronization of economic growth and efficiency increase.

关 键 词：新东北现象 重工业化 市场化 城镇化 地级市面板数据 

分 类 号：F427[经济管理—产业经济]