病险水库除险加固效果的量化评价模型  

Quantitative evaluation model of reinforcement effect for dangerous reservoirs

作　　者：沈振中 甘磊[2] 徐力群[2] 张湛[2,3] SHEN Zhenzhong;GAN Lei;XU Liqun;ZHANG Zhan(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Water Resources Department of Henan Province,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098 [3]河南省水利厅,河南郑州450003

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2018年第5期10-14,80,共6页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U1765205);国家自然科学青年基金(51609073);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(YS11001)

摘　　要：由于我国病险水库除险加固工程浩大,但除险加固效果综合评价的理论和方法较少,导致大量除险加固工程实际加固效果难以准确评估。为此,研究病险水库除险加固效果评价的定量分析方法,定义除险加固方案、功能指标康复程度、工程施工与除险加固效益等4个除险加固效果影响因素集,提出水库大坝除险加固效果影响因素的"积木模型"。提出水库除险加固效果评价指标量化方法,包括评价指标等级划分,时效与非时效评价指标量化方法,专家主观、客观权重确定以及指标静态、动态权重确定等,建立了水库大坝除险加固效果量化评价模型。将该模型运用于某病险水库除险加固效果评价中,模型评价结果与实际情况及验收结论吻合。Reinforcement of dangerous reservoirs is a huge project in China,but the theories and methods of comprehensive assessment for the reinforcement effects are limited,leading to the difficulty to accurately evaluate the actual effects for a large number of reinforcement projects.The quantitative analysis of the evaluation method of the reinforcement effect for dangerous reservoirs is studied.Four reinforcement impact factors are defined,including the evaluation of reinforcing schemes,functional index rehabilitation,engineering construction and the benefit of reinforcement,based on which a“Building Block Model”of the influence factors is established to evaluate reservoir reinforcement effect.Quantification methods for the reinforcement effect evaluation indexes are proposed,including the evaluation indicator grading,time-dependent and time-independent evaluation indexes,subjective and objective weight of experts,static and dynamic weight.The quantitative evaluation model for evaluating the reinforcement effect of dangerous reservoirs is obtained.The model is applied to the reinforcement assessment of a dangerous reservoir and the results agree well with the actual situation and the acceptance conclusion.

关 键 词：病险水库 除险加固 积木模型 量化评价 时效性指标 动态权重 

分 类 号：TV314[水利工程—水工结构工程]