发射潜空导弹对潜艇生存概率影响  

Study on Influence of Lanching Submarine to Air Missile on Survival Probability of Submarine

作　　者：张天赫 彭绍雄 王栋 ZHANG Tian-he;PENG Shao-xiong;WANG Dong(Naval Aviation University,Yantai 264001,China)

机构地区：[1]海军航空大学,山东烟台264001

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2018年第8期75-80,共6页Fire Control & Command Control

基　　金：国家社会科学基金军事学资助项目(14GJ003-153)

摘　　要：潜艇对抗反潜机中潜空导弹的使用是一个对潜艇生存概率产生重大影响的复杂的决策过程,运用贝叶斯网络将过程指标体系作为修后评价指标体系的先验知识。首先建立潜艇发射潜空导弹后潜艇生存概率的评价指标体系,然后,建立贝叶斯网络模型,通过改进的模糊综合评价方法确定了根节点的先验概率,通过专家经验法确定了子节点的条件概率,并给出了模型的具体求解步骤。最后将先验概率与条件概率输入Netica仿真软件,对贝叶斯网络进行仿真与分析。结果表明:提出的方法能够在一定程度上解决潜空导弹发射后潜艇的生存概率问题,为完善潜艇的作战理论和潜艇生存概率评估提供了借鉴。In the process of submarine anti antisubmarine aircraft,the use of submarine to air missile is a complex decision process which has a significant impact on the survival probability of submarine.Bayesian network will process indicators as evaluation index system after repair of prior knowledge.First the survival probability evaluation index system of submarine is established that had launched submarine to air missile,then the Bayesian network model is established.The prior probability of the root node is determined by the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the conditional probability of the node is determined by the expert experience method,and gives the specific steps of solving.At last,the Bayes network is simulated and analyzed by the Netica software with the prior probability and conditional probability.The results show that the proposed method can solve the problem of the survival probability of submarine after the launch of the submarine to air missile to a certain extent.

关 键 词：潜空导弹 生存概率 贝叶斯网络 云理论 

分 类 号：TJ76[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程]