农民工首次返乡风险研究(1980—2009)——基于个人迁移史的事件史分析  

The Risk of Conducting the First Return Migration between 1980 and 2009 : A Survival Analysis of Migrant Workers' Individual Migration History

作　　者：陈晨[1] CHEN Chen(Asian Demographic Research Institute,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China)

机构地区：[1]上海大学亚洲人口研究中心,上海200444

出　　处：《人口与经济》2018年第5期91-99,共9页Population & Economics

摘　　要：利用1980到2009年间500位安徽籍农民工的个人迁移史面板数据,使用事件史分析模型对影响首次返乡风险的因素进行分析。文章发现,农民工首次外出后的返乡风险在2000—2009年间较之前二十年明显降低。首次返乡风险随首次外出年龄的增加先降后升。女性和受过高中教育的农民工更容易返乡。留守子女数量的增加将引起男性返乡风险的降低和女性返乡风险的提升。研究结果证明了改革开放以来影响城乡迁移的宏观经济社会环境的改善,也预示着如果我国城乡二元经济社会结构环境不发生根本变化,农民工的城乡循环流动还将持续。Based on the migration history panel data between 1980 and 2009 of 500 migrant workers from Anhui,I investigate the factors affect the risk of returning for the first time after a migrant worker migrates from home village to a city.I find after the first out-migration,migrant workers’risk of returning is significantly lower between 2000 and 2009 than in the past two decades.The relationship between the risk of returning for the first time and the age a migrant migrates is U-shape.Women and migrants with junior high education are more likely to return than men and migrants with lower education levels.The number of left-behind children stops a man from returning while it encourages a woman to return.The findings confirmed that the improvement of socioeconomic environment facilitates rural-urban migration since the Reform and Opening-up.However,they also suggest migrants’circularity will persist and China’s urbanization policies should take multi-locality into account.

关 键 词：农民工 回流 迁移史 事件史分析 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]