中国预期寿命变动的地区差异及其社会经济影响因素:1981—2010  

Regional disparities in life expectancy and their socio-economic determinants from 1981 to 2010 in China

作　　者：齐亚强[1] 李琳 QI Ya-qiang;LI Lin(Center for Sociological Theory and Method,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学社会学理论与方法研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《中国卫生政策研究》2018年第8期29-35,共7页Chinese Journal of Health Policy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13BSH016)

摘　　要：利用最近四期人口普查数据估算的分省预期寿命及相应年份的社会经济统计资料,分析改革开放以来不同省份人口预期寿命之间的地区差异及其历时变动情况,并通过拟合针对面板数据的随机效应模型考察影响人口预期寿命地区差异的社会经济因素。结果研究发现,中国不同地区人口预期寿命差距明显,这一差距在1990—2010年总体上经历了先升后降的变动过程。面板数据模型分析结果显示,经济发展水平和增长速度、收入不平等程度以及教育和卫生基础资源状况是导致不同地区人口预期寿命差异的重要影响因素。Drawing on data from provincial life expectancies that were estimated by the last four census data and the socio-economic indicators of the corresponding years,this paper analyzed the level and trend of regional disparities in life expectancy and their diachronic changes among Chinese provinces since the reform and opening up.The underlying socioeconomic factors that influence the regional differences in population's life expectancy were examined by the random effects model of panel data as well.The results of the study showed that regional disparities in life expectancy in different regions of China were obvious and this gap experienced a general divergence before 1990 and then converged or declined from 1990 to 2010.Further panel-data analyses through fitting random-effects models with first-order autocorrelation showed that the level of economic development and growth rate,income inequality,and education and health infrastructure constitute the main socioeconomic factors influencing the regional disparities in life expectancy.

关 键 词：预期寿命 地区差异 社会经济发展 健康不平等 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]