考虑路径相关度的PERT网络进度风险的改进算法  

Improved Algorithm for Scheduling Risk of PERT Networks Considering Path Correlation

作　　者：刘迅[1] 毕远志[2] LIU Xun;BI Yuanzhi(School of Civil Engineering,Suzhou University of Science and Technology,Suzhou 215000,China;School of Environment and Civil Engineering,Jiangnan University,Wuxi 214122,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州科技大学土木工程学院,江苏苏州215000 [2]江南大学环境与土木工程学院,江苏无锡214122

出　　处：《华侨大学学报（自然科学版）》2018年第5期675-681,共7页Journal of Huaqiao University(Natural Science)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51274105);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(JUSRP1031);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201401016);苏州科技大学高层次人才基金资助项目(331711105)

摘　　要：提出克服传统计划评审技术(PERT)网络进度风险的局限性进度网络风险概率的改进算法.考虑网络路径之间相关性的约束条件,去除在规定工期内高完工率和高相关性的路径,利用多元正态积分技术,计算PERT网络进度风险概率.算例结果表明:与传统的蒙特卡洛模拟方法相比,该模型能够减少大量的计算时间,且误差较小,可忽略不计.The risk probabilistic method of program evaluation and review technique(PERT)construction schedule network is presented,which overcomes the limitations of the current PERT.Considering the constraints of correlation between the network paths,removing the paths with high completion and high correlation in time limit for a project network,and using multivariate normal integral method,the network schedule risk is calculated.The results illustrate that:by comparison with Monte Carlo simulation methods,the new model is able to reduce greatly the computational time,the error is small and negligible.

关 键 词：工程项目管理 计划评审技术 多元正态积分 网络路径 网络进度风险 

分 类 号：TU712[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]