基于舆情大数据的网民关注度转移模型研究  

The Research on Netizens Attention Transfer Model for Big Data of Network Public Opinion

作　　者：兰月新[1] 刘冰月[2] 张鹏[1] 夏一雪[1] 刘茉[1] 连芷萱 Lan Yuexin;Liu Bingyue;Zhang Peng;Xia Yixue;Liu Mo;Lian Zhixuan(The Chinese People s Armed Police Force Academy,Langfang 065000,China;Tianjin Transportation Technical College,Tianjin 300132,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队学院,河北廊坊065000 [2]天津交通职业学院,天津300132

出　　处：《现代情报》2018年第10期10-15,共6页Journal of Modern Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目"公共安全视角下网络舆情风险建模与对策研究"(项目编号:15CXW015);全国统计科学研究重点项目"舆情大数据环境下突发事件民意监测与评估研究"(项目编号:2017LZ37);河北省高等学校青年拔尖人才计划项目"面向舆情大数据的社会安全事件风险感知与智能防控机制研究"(项目编号:BJ2018217);河北省社会科学发展研究课题"基于社交媒体大数据的雄安新区社会安全事件情报预警研究"(项目编号:201804120407);公安理论及软科学研究计划重点项目"面向大数据的涉恐涉稳网络舆情风险预测与情报感知研究"(项目编号:2018LLYJWJXY006)

摘　　要：[目的/意义]基于舆情大数据研究网民关注度转移模型,能够深入解读大数据环境下网络舆情事件的竞争效应,可以为网络舆情治理提供参考依据。[方法 /过程]定性分析大数据环境下网络舆情事件竞争效应以及网民关注度转移机理,基于微分方程组构建网民关注度转移模型,通过研究模型特性和数值仿真,理解两个舆情事件之间网民关注度转移的定量关系以及未来趋势,并给出估计模型参数的方法。[结论/结果]经过理论建模和实证分析得出本文构建的网民关注度转移模型是可行的,尤其是可以通过舆情数据分析确定多个舆情事件的竞争结果以及网民关注度转移的关键节点,为进一步研究网民关注度转移趋势预测问题提供模型基础。[Purpose/Significance]This paper studied the netizens attention transfer model for big data of network public opinion,and further interpreted the competition effect of different Internet public opinion events under big data environment,and thus provided references of network public opinion management for the government.[Method/Process]Through the qualitative analysis of the competition effect of different Internet public opinion events and netizens attention transfer mechanism under big data environment,this paper constructed the netizens attention transfer model based on the theory of differential equation.By studying the characteristics of model and numerical simulation,this paper further identified the quantitative relationship and future trends of netizens attention transfer between two public opinion events,and provided the method to estimate model parameters.[Result/Conclusion]Through theoretical modeling and empirical analysis,this paper concluded the feasibility of netizens attention transfer model.Through public opinion data analysis,identifying competition results of multiple public opinion events and key nodes of netizens attention transfer could provide model foundation for the further study on the trend prediction of netizens attention transfer.

关 键 词：大数据 网络舆情 网民关注度 转移模型 预测 数值仿真 

分 类 号：C912.6[经济管理]