风险信息、个体反应对关联信用风险传染的影响  

Impact of Risk Information and Individual Response on Associated Credit Risk Contagion

作　　者：徐凯 周宗放[1] 钱茜 Xu Kai;Zhou Zongfang;Qian Qian(School of Economics and Management,University of Electronic Science and Technology of China,Chengdu 611731,China;School of Business,Chengdu University,Chengdu 610106,China;School of Business,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610101,China)

机构地区：[1]电子科技大学经济与管理学院,成都611731 [2]成都大学商学院,成都610106 [3]四川师范大学商学院,成都610101

出　　处：《技术经济》2018年第8期116-122,130,共8页Journal of Technology Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"关联信用风险演化结构与传染机理研究"(71271043);成都市科技局软科学项目"成都高新技术企业利润操纵的智能识别模型构建及应用研究"(2016-RK00-00010-ZF);四川省社会科学重点研究基地四川县域经济发展研究中心项目"四川县域企业财务危机的智能预警及应用"(xy2018016)

摘　　要：结合传染病模型和复杂网络理论,探讨了风险信息和个体反应对关联信用风险传染的影响机理。研究表明:个体反应在风险信息对关联信用风险传染的影响过程中起中介作用;关联信用风险传染强度的阈值与真实和虚假风险信息的传播效率均无关,但与关联个体网络结构和感染个体恢复率有关;当关联信用风险传染稳定时,感染个体的密度与真实和虚假风险信息的传播效率均存在显著关系,且感染个体的密度对真实和虚假风险信息的敏感性相当。Based on the epidemic model and the complex network theory,this paper discusses the impact mechanism of risk information and individual response on the associated credit risk contagion.The results show as follows:individual response plays an intermediary role in the process of impact of risk information on the associated credit risk contagion;the threshold of contagion intensity for associated credit risk has nothing to do with the transmission efficiency of real and fake risk information,but is related to the recovery rate and individual network structure;when the credit risk contagion is stable,there is a significant relationship between the density of infected individuals and the transmission efficiency of the real and fake risk information,and the density of infected individuals is more or less sensitive to real and fake risk information.

关 键 词：风险信息 个体反应 关联信用风险 关联个体网络 传染强度 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]