汇率预期管理的国际经验及借鉴  

International Experience and Reference of Exchange Rate Expectation Management

作　　者：张华强[1] 苗启虎[1] Zhang Huaqiang;Miao Qihu(Haikou Central Sub-branch of PBC,Hainan Haikou 570105)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行海口中心支行,海南海口570105

出　　处：《金融发展研究》2018年第9期58-65,共8页Journal Of Financial Development Research

基　　金：国家外汇管理局2017年重点课题"汇率预期管理的国际经验及我国汇率预期管理框架研究"

摘　　要：我国在人民币汇率预期管理方面已经有了多年的实践,但囿于实践的时间有限,有必要从别国的多年的实践中吸取经验教训。主要发达国家目前已很少在外汇市场上直接干预,更多采用口头干预等手段对市场预期进行管理,调节汇率。本文分析了美国、日本、英国和印度等国汇率预期管理案例,总结了汇率预期管理的发展趋势及管理实践经验。在此基础上,提出了加强人民币汇率预期管理的政策建议。China has had many years of practice in the expectation management of RMB exchange rate,due to the time spent on practice is limited,it is necessary to learn experience and lessons from other countries.At present,major developed countries have rarely directly intervened in the foreign exchange market,instead,they are more likely to adopt means like oral intervention to manage the exchange rate of market expectations.This paper analyzes the expected management cases of exchange rates in the United States,Japan,the United Kingdom and India,and summarizes the development trends and management practices of exchange rate expectation management.On this basis,it puts forward policy recommendations to strengthen the expected management of the RMB exchange rate.

关 键 词：汇率预期 汇率预期管理 异质性 羊群效应 反身性 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]