钢悬链线立管强度可靠性计算研究  

Strength reliability calculation of steel catenary riser

作　　者：张萌 李智博 吴剑国[2] 张国进 孙政策[1] ZHANG Meng;LI Zhibo;WU Jianguo;ZHANG Guojin;SUN Zhengce(Offshore Engineering Technology Center of China Classification Society,Beijing 100007,China;College of Civil Engineering,Zhejiang University of Technology,Hangzhou 310014,China)

机构地区：[1]中国船级社海洋工程技术中心,北京100007 [2]浙江工业大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310014

出　　处：《海洋工程》2018年第5期121-127,共7页The Ocean Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2014CB046805);国家自然科学基金(51239008);国家自然科学基金(51379145)

摘　　要：在钢悬链线立管分析中,材料性能、载荷参数、计算方法等都存在着大量不确定性。为考虑不确定性因素造成的影响,采用作用效应-抗力半随机过程构建可靠性模型,并采用极小化变换转化为静态可靠性问题。选用物理含义较为明确的屈服判定准则建立功能函数,通过单样本K-S检验对载荷随机过程的概率特性进行极值统计,提出载荷转化的方法以实现与目标可靠性指标的比对,并引入模型和主观不确定性随机变量。在此基础上采用改进的一次二阶矩法,对立管的强度可靠性进行了计算。结果表明此方法与利用系数方法能够相互印证,可以为立管的可靠性计算提供参考。There are a lot of uncertainties in material properties,load parameters,calculation methods in steel catenary riser analysis.In order to take the effect of those uncertainties into consideration,a reliability model based on load effect-resistance semi random process is adopted,which could come down to a static reliability issue after minimizing transformation.The performance function is built up according to the yield criterion which has clear physical meaning.During the process a one-sample K-S test is applied to obtain the probabilistic characteristics of loads through extreme value statistics,after which the application of load transform method helps realize the comparison between the calculated reliability index and the target one,then the random variables of the model and subjective uncertainty are introduced into analysis.After those,the first order second moment method is able to come up with the strength reliability index of these risers.The comparison result shows that the reliability analysis can be verified by the utilization coefficient method and can provide a useful reference for SCR strength reliability calculation.

关 键 词：钢悬链线立管 可靠性 作用效应-抗力半随机过程 极值统计 不确定性随机变量 

分 类 号：P751[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]